As many analysts are slashing their 2026 price targets for Bitcoin (BTC 0.86%), one top Wall Street investment firm is not. According to Bernstein, Bitcoin could still hit $150,000 by the end of the year.
Obviously, a lot needs to go right for Bitcoin for that to happen. But the world's top cryptocurrency is capable of soaring in price by 120% this year. Here's why.
"The weakest bear case in history"
Throughout its history, Bitcoin has experienced a number of boom-and-bust cycles. Typically, three years of boom are followed by one year of bust. Almost like clockwork, the price of Bitcoin collapses by more than 50% every four years. It happened in 2014, 2018, and 2022. And it now looks like it is happening in 2026. That helps to explain why market sentiment is so low on Bitcoin right now.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
But Bernstein sees it differently. According to the firm, this is the "weakest bear case in history." During previous crypto collapses, there have been insolvencies, bankruptcies, spectacular failures, and blow-ups. None of that has happened in 2026.
That's why Bernstein describes the current situation as a "crisis of confidence," and nothing more. And, to a large degree, the numbers bear this out. For example, the Crypto Fear & Greed Index recently dipped below 10 (out of a possible 100), indicating wide-scale panic in the market. Once the index moves out of "extreme fear" territory (a reading of 20 or higher), Bitcoin could soar in value.
Institutional adoption of Bitcoin
Institutional adoption of Bitcoin remains on track. Large asset managers and institutional investors continue to add Bitcoin to their portfolios. Large Wall Street firms continue to push out new Bitcoin-related products. Net inflows have returned to the spot Bitcoin ETFs. And Bitcoin treasury companies continue to buy Bitcoin (albeit at a scaled-back rate).
Image source: Getty Images.
All this suggests that the core investment thesis for Bitcoin remains valid. Now is no time to give up on Bitcoin, which has been the top-performing asset in the world for much of the past decade. It has routinely delivered triple-digit returns, and the price of Bitcoin has grown exponentially over the past 15 years.
Is Bitcoin a risk asset or a safe-haven asset?
It's also undeniable that Bitcoin has lost some of its luster as "digital gold." Just 12 months ago, hedge fund managers were extolling the virtues of Bitcoin as a potential safe-haven asset. Some even compared it to gold as a long-term store of value.
Bitcoin / U.S. dollar chart by TradingView
But ever since October, the price of gold -- as measured by the performance of the iShares Gold Trust (IAU 1.61%) -- has skyrocketed in value, while Bitcoin has nosedived. The two assets are now moving in completely opposite directions, and it's easy to see why money is moving out of Bitcoin and into gold. Even Bernstein acknowledges that Bitcoin is now trading like a "liquidity-sensitive risk asset."
But that's what's needed for Bitcoin to break out and deliver truly explosive upside potential. By the halfway point of 2026, I fully expect market sentiment on Bitcoin to shift. As long as Bitcoin can tread water for the next few months, it's capable of doubling in value to hit $150,000 by the end of the year.
