Opendoor Technologies (OPEN 8.16%) was supposed to be the great digital real estate disruptor, offering a better way to buy and sell homes using artificial intelligence (AI) to simplify the process. However, it hasn't been able to live up to its potential since mortgage interest rates have soared, and the business has been under incredible pressure.
But with a new CEO in place and a brand-new strategy, things might be looking up. A $10 price tag implies almost doubling from today's levels. Could that happen?
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Opendoor 2.0
CEO Kaz Nejatian is calling the new strategy Opendoor 2.0. It's the same basic model, but new management has a fresh take on making it work.
The company is broadening the acquisition channels, moving more into a direct-to-consumer approach, and expanding the seller's options, providing greater flexibility to move the needle. It's transitioning to a focus on volume, finding great homes that it can renovate for a quick turnaround, rather than dragging the business by searching for bargain homes that might be cheap for a reason.
The fourth-quarter results were still disappointing, since they were still lower year over year. It's going to take time to show progress in revenue, since homebuying is partially a seasonal business.
However, there are metrics that should demonstrate quicker progress. Management is making a big effort to improve profitability, with one of its goals to hit breakeven on adjusted net income on a forward, one-year basis as of the end of the year. It's bringing in more AI applications to its platform to increase efficiency, and it's expecting higher volume to increase scale and land on the bottom line.
NASDAQ: OPEN
Key Data Points
Doubling the stock
Investors received the fourth-quarter results positively, and the stock has jumped 17% since the report. The new volume algorithms seem to be working, and Opendoor increased acquisitions 46% quarter over quarter. The October 2025 acquisition cohort is 50% sold or under contract, twice the year before's volume, and 50% higher than 2023.
The market is feeling the momentum, and if Opendoor continues on this trajectory, it could make a real turnaround.
From where Opendoor is right now, it's not hard to see a way to double the stock. It's more of a question of whether it can get there. Sales continue to decline, and the stock trades at less than 1 times sales, which implies that the market is still concerned.
If sales reverse and begin to grow again, the stock could easily rise, and it will be able to carry a higher valuation, which means the stock increase can outpace the sales increase.
It's all still in the realm of potential. But if you're willing to take the risk, Opendoor stock might be able to reach $10 and double your money.
