It's now been almost exactly one year since the creation of the Strategic Bitcoin (BTC +2.64%) Reserve, and there hasn't been a lot to show for it. After all, the price of Bitcoin is now more than 45% below its all-time high.
But that could soon change. In January, Cathie Wood of Ark Invest outlined a scenario in which the U.S. government might initiate buying for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve ahead of the 2026 midterm elections. If so, this could be the missing X factor that Bitcoin investors have been waiting for.
How much Bitcoin will the U.S. government buy?
The original plan back in 2024 was for the U.S. government to buy 1 million BTC, or roughly 5% of the total circulating supply. According to Motley Fool research, that would make the U.S. government the largest holder of Bitcoin in the world.
Some plans, though, call for even greater Bitcoin exposure. Michael Saylor, the founder and executive chairman of Strategy (MSTR 0.72%), has outlined a plan for the U.S. government to own 25% of all Bitcoin in circulation by the year 2035.
Image source: Getty Images.
This aggressive buying would help to guarantee that the U.S. becomes the "crypto capital of the world." It would also help to provide a steady floor under the price of Bitcoin by providing a consistent source of demand for the next decade.
And that would be music to the ears of Bitcoin investors. After all, it's one thing for relatively tiny Bitcoin treasury companies to scoop up Bitcoin, but it's another thing entirely when an economic superpower is doing so as part of a new strategic imperative.
A Bitcoin arms race
In a best-case scenario for Bitcoin investors, this steady buying by the United States would encourage other sovereign nations to dip their toes into the crypto market. The winner of this so-called "Bitcoin arms race" would become the dominant economic player on the planet, simply due to the vast amount of wealth being created.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
And, to some extent, this wishful scenario of a Bitcoin arms race is already playing out at the state level. Several U.S. states have already approved Bitcoin reserves of their own, and nearly two dozen more are just waiting for a signal from the federal government before moving forward with their plans.
The U.S. midterm elections
That signal could be the U.S. midterm elections. Ahead of these elections, Republicans might be tempted to boost the price of Bitcoin. After all, the price of Bitcoin is the unofficial barometer of how well the crypto market is doing. And a higher Bitcoin price would also make a lot of crypto political donors very happy.
As might be expected, online prediction markets are also keeping a close eye on this development. On Polymarket, there are now 30% odds of this happening before 2027.
Putting it all together, any aggressive buying of Bitcoin by the U.S. government would be very bullish for Bitcoin. It would set a firm floor under the price of Bitcoin, and it would dramatically boost the likelihood of Bitcoin getting to the $1 million price level by the year 2030. And all of this could be coming much sooner than anyone thinks.
