Many investors may not want to touch Bitcoin (BTC +2.48%) with a 10-foot pole right now. The world's top cryptocurrency is down 17% for the year and more than 40% from its all-time high in October.
But there are two good reasons you might want to load up on Bitcoin between now and the end of June.
Bitcoin's quarterly returns
Let's start with Bitcoin's historical performance in Q2s. Between 2013 and 2025, Bitcoin averaged a return of 27% in the second quarter, according to data from Coinglass. That includes a 30% return last year and a string of stellar performances between 2016 and 2020. In 2017, for example, Bitcoin gained 123% for the quarter, and in 2019, Bitcoin rose 159% during the quarter.
Image source: Getty Images.
I'm not saying that Bitcoin is going to double in value this quarter, but it's not out of the range of possibilities. Bitcoin is famous for its volatility.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
If -- and it's a big if -- Bitcoin manages to come anywhere close to its performance in 2017 or 2019, then we could be talking about $100,000 Bitcoin by the end of June.
Strategic Bitcoin Reserve
One key catalyst would be a decision by the U.S. Treasury to begin aggressive buying of Bitcoin for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve. It's now been nearly a year since the reserve's creation, but thus far, the only Bitcoin it holds has been seized, confiscated, or expropriated by the U.S. government.
But what happens if the U.S. Treasury decides to buy Bitcoin? The original plans called for the U.S. Treasury to buy 1 million coins, or roughly 5% of all Bitcoin in circulation.
Based on crypto research from The Motley Fool, that would easily make the U.S. government one of the largest holders of Bitcoin in the world. And it might trigger copycat moves by other sovereign governments as they watch the U.S. scoop up Bitcoin at a low price of just $73,000 (as of March 4).
That scenario might sound improbable, and perhaps it is. But some high-profile investors think it could become a reality as we approach the U.S. midterm elections in November of this year. According to Cathie Wood of Ark Invest, for example, the Republicans will be tempted to juice the crypto markets ahead of the election. And announcing any plan to buy Bitcoin for the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve would do exactly that.
How likely is a Bitcoin rebound in Q2?
Add these two factors together, and there's a not-insignificant possibility that Bitcoin reverses course in Q2. Remember -- the average return for Bitcoin in the period for more than a decade has been 27%. Based on Bitcoin's current price of $73,000, that would mean a price of roughly $93,000 by the end of the quarter.
Of course, there are no guarantees with Bitcoin. And historical performance is certainly no guarantee of future results. But I'm getting increasingly bullish about Bitcoin's prospects for the remainder of 2026.
