This year is setting up to be an important one for Rivian Automotive (RIVN 8.11%) investors, especially considering the company is trying to reverse its 2025 $3.6 billion net loss and 18% delivery decline. After a long battle with tariff impacts, policy changes, and no new-vehicle launches last year, Rivian investors are ready to shift into a higher gear. The good news is that's exactly what Rivian's CEO R.J. Scaringe expects to see.
The time is now
"I believe 2026 will be an inflection point for our business," Scaringe said on the fourth-quarter earnings call Feb. 12, according to Automotive News. "R2 is an exceptional vehicle and I believe will be a game changer for our customers, our company and the industry."
The R2 will be critical for Rivian to reverse its sales and delivery decline as the automaker's first mass-market vehicle. After last year's delivery decline, the R2, with a price target around $45,000, is expected to drive 2026 deliveries to between 62,000 and 67,000. R2 deliveries should begin during the second quarter before adding a second shift toward the end of the year and adding a third shift in 2027.
Image source: Rivian.
While new-vehicle launches are often accompanied by various problems to work through, investors expect a quick start, as the automaker noted it has a large backlog of orders to begin working through and will compete with the best-selling electric vehicle (EV) in the U.S., Tesla's Model Y.
Outside of the Model Y, however, there is a surprising lack of high-quality EV options for consumers below $50,000, pointing to a market that is both lucrative and underserved -- a great opportunity for Rivian's R2. Remember that the Model Y generated more than 350,000 registrations in 2025, according to S&P Global Mobility, leaving plenty of opportunity for the R2 to take its share of the pie.
One thing to watch
For investors hoping the R2 drives significant delivery growth in the coming years, it's also critical to watch the impact the new vehicle has on gross profits. In fact, Rivian just notched a key milestone when posting its first full year of gross profit at $144 million, thanks largely to material cost reductions.
NASDAQ: RIVN
Key Data Points
If Rivian continues to execute on cost reductions, while driving deliveries higher as production of the R2 accelerates through its third shift in 2027, the impact could drive gross profits higher, especially as automakers typically begin deliveries with higher-priced trims. However, if problems arise or production acceleration hits a speed bump, investors could be waiting longer to see positive impacts on profitability.
2026 is shaping up to be a much more exciting year for Rivian investors with its first mass-market consumer vehicle about to hit the roads, and its first full year of gross profit in its pocket. Investors would still be wise to limit investments in the young EV maker to a small position, because if the R2 doesn't connect with consumers, it could leave the company's future in peril.
