Cava Group (CAVA 0.15%) just reminded investors what happens when a fast-casual brand hits its stride -- and I called it!
Back in January, I started looking closely at Cava after its stock price dropped more than 50%, and I came away believing the sell-off had more to do with a broad fast-casual slowdown affecting chains than with any real weakness in Cava, which is still showing strong new-store profitability and long-term expansion potential.
The restaurant chain featuring Mediterranean cuisine saw its stock surge roughly 25% recently after blowing past expectations, crossing the $1 billion annual revenue milestone, and guiding for 74 to 76 new restaurant openings in 2026 as it pushes toward 500 locations and a long-term target of 1,000 by 2032.
Image source: Getty Images.
CEO Brett Schulman said consumer spending remains steady as the company introduces salmon as its first seafood offering and rolls out TurboChef ovens and kitchen display systems across all locations.
Cava's strategy, marrying geographic expansion with culinary innovation and operational technology, is working.
Here are three S&P 500 stocks executing a strikingly similar formula.
NYSE: CAVA
Key Data Points
1. Costco Wholesale
Ah, it's a classic. Costco Wholesale (COST +1.12%) is building warehouses the way Cava is building restaurants: methodically, globally, and with a clear long-term map. The company plans to open 28 new warehouses in fiscal 2026, with a stated goal of exceeding 30 annually in future years. Half of those openings will be international, spanning Canada, Mexico, Europe, Asia, and Australia.
CFO Gary Millerchip said the company looks "five to 10 years ahead regarding our real estate strategies" and still sees a robust pipeline across every market where it operates.
The expansion playbook is evolving. Costco is now converting old hypermarkets in France and former home improvement stores in Canada into full-scale warehouses, reducing capital requirements while increasing its footprint. A new 200,000-square-foot location in Monterrey, Mexico, will be the largest Costco warehouse in Latin America, with additional stores planned for Mexico City, Puebla, and Queretaro beyond 2026.
Meanwhile, Kirkland Signature, the private-label brand that 90% of members cite as a key reason they renew, introduced over 30 new products in Q4 alone, expanding into premium categories like organic foods and luxury skincare.
NASDAQ: COST
Key Data Points
2. Chipotle Mexican Grill
Chipotle Mexican Grill (CMG 3.87%) is doing something it has never done before: going truly global. The company hit 4,000 restaurants in December 2025, with CEO Scott Boatwright ringing the New York Stock Exchange bell to celebrate. Since Boatwright joined in 2017, Chipotle has added 1,700 locations, a 70% increase in its North American footprint.
The international expansion is what makes the next chapter different. Chipotle signed its first joint venture with SPC Group to open restaurants in South Korea and Singapore in 2026, marking its Asian debut.
A development agreement with Alshaya Group has already brought stores to Dubai and Kuwait, and a partnership with Alsea will bring Chipotle to Mexico this year. In Europe, the chain is accelerating in London with 20 U.K. locations and counting.
The long-term target remains 7,000 restaurants in North America, with 350 to 370 new openings planned for 2026, roughly one per day.
3. TJX Companies
In late February, TJX Companies (TJX 1.35%) reported fiscal 2026 fourth-quarter and full-year results (ended Jan. 31, 2026), with net sales rising 9% year over year to $17.7 billion and earnings per share (EPS) of $1.58, beating analyst expectations. Despite strong sales and a 16% increase in adjusted EPS, investors reacted negatively, pushing the stock down more than 1% as CEO Ernie Herrman highlighted the company's focus on off-price fundamentals and a "treasure hunt" shopping experience.
NYSE: TJX
Key Data Points
But I'm not fazed. Like Chipotle, TJX is expanding its empire at a pace that makes most retailers look timid. The company plans to open 146 new stores in 2026, bringing its total footprint to 5,300 locations, and the long-term vision is 7,000 stores globally. That means 1,700 more stores to come, spread across the U.S., Canada, Europe, Australia, and two brand-new markets: Spain and the Middle East.
Herrman's strategy goes beyond raw store count. TJX is aggressively scaling its Sierra outdoor brand, with 24 new Sierra stores planned this year, competing directly with specialty outdoor retailers. Smaller-format stores in untapped rural and semirural markets are extending TJX's reach while maintaining capital efficiency.
TJX is following a similar strategy to Cava. An investment here will pay off.
