Right now, XRP (XRP +1.33%) is only a $1 crypto. But that could change much sooner than many people expect, thanks to the global financial system's embrace of blockchain technology.
Within a span of just five years, XRP could be a $20 crypto. If you're willing to take on the risk of investing in a highly volatile altcoin, you might see a 20x return on your investment by 2030.
A valuation model for XRP
One popular XRP valuation model is known as a "transaction velocity model." It looks at the total volume of global cross-border payments, makes a few quick assumptions about XRP's ability to take on a greater share of that cross-border payment flow, and then comes up with a final price for XRP based on liquidity trends and overall market demand.
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Let's start with the basic assumptions. Right now, SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) handles approximately $150 trillion in cross-border payments annually. Let's assume that the XRP blockchain is able to handle 14% of that total, or approximately $21 trillion annually. That's based on projections from Ripple CEO Brad Garlinghouse, who has delivered several bullish updates on XRP's future growth trajectory.
Let's also assume that each XRP token can be reused multiple times per day in order to provide liquidity (that's the "velocity" part of the model), and that the total circulating supply of XRP remains steady at 61 billion. Once you plug all those assumptions into a mathematical model, that works out to a future price of $20 for XRP. If you tweak the assumptions, you can arrive at an even higher price for XRP.
New Ripple partnerships
However, can XRP really capture 14% of SWIFT's annual cross-border payment flows? That seems like a big ask. To help make that happen, Ripple (the company behind the XRP crypto token) has spent over $3 billion on blockchain and crypto-related transactions since 2023.
The goal here is to create a total end-to-end blockchain infrastructure for handling global payment flows. The centerpiece of this infrastructure is the XRP blockchain, which makes it possible to move money around the world faster and more cheaply. Money can move in seconds, rather than in days.
A bear-case scenario for XRP
Of course, a lot can go wrong here. SWIFT has plenty of options when it comes to deploying blockchain technology, and there's no guarantee that it will choose to partner with Ripple. For example, SWIFT recently appeared to indicate its preference for other blockchain-based solutions.
Moreover, stablecoins could make a real dent in any future plans. Why not just use stablecoins (which are pegged 1:1 to the price of the dollar) to move money around the world, rather than a crypto token (XRP) that can fluctuate wildly in value?
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
In my bear-case scenario, XRP might only capture 1% of SWIFT's global payment flows. That would likely lead to a future price of just $4, which is basically where XRP was trading last summer. Once again, XRP will over-promise and under-deliver.
New momentum for XRP?
That being said, there's a lot going in the right direction for both Ripple and XRP. The SEC regulatory cloud over Ripple finally lifted last year, freeing up the company to get back to business as usual. And all the pieces seem to be falling into place after a prodigious acquisition spending spree.
So if you're willing to take a flyer on a high-risk, high-reward cryptocurrency, look no further than XRP. Within a span of just five years, it could be a $20 crypto and prove all the naysayers wrong.
