After five consecutive months of decline from its October 2025 all-time high of roughly $126,000, Bitcoin (BTC 2.56%) is priced at about $70,000 today. A $20,000 swing from here -- which is equivalent to about a move of 29% in either direction -- would land it near $90,000 or near $50,000.
Three catalysts in particular could kick off the move in the near term. Let's examine what each could do, and whether they'd be bullish or bearish for the coin.
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1. More liquidity could be coming
When central banks expand the money supply, risky assets like cryptocurrency have historically benefited.
On that front, the U.S. M2 money supply, which is a measure of all cash, savings, and near-cash instruments in the economy, reached a record level of $22.4 trillion in January 2026, climbing 4.3% year over year. The global M2 is expanding even faster, with year-over-year growth of more than 10%.
Past Bitcoin bull markets in 2017, 2021, and 2024 all coincided with surging liquidity, often with a lag of 50 to 70 days. Thus, if central banks continue to create more money to finance fiscal priorities, which they likely will, liquidity could soon increase, pumping up the money supply and ultimately filtering through into higher Bitcoin prices.
But one problem with this tidy upside story is that Bitcoin hasn't followed the script recently.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
Since mid-2025, the global M2 has posted big annual gains while Bitcoin has delivered negative returns -- a divergence with no precedent. If the historical lag holds, a powerful catch-up rally could be building. But if the decoupling is structural rather than transient, fresh liquidity alone won't lift the price. When the market comes to believe that an old and formerly dependable relationship is kaput, a downtrend is very likely.
So either path here can produce a $20,000 move.
2. The quantum computing problem
It's theoretically possible that with the help of an advanced quantum computer, an attacker could compromise the Bitcoin protocol's cryptography, thereby enabling the theft of coins from anyone's wallet.
No quantum computer can crack Bitcoin's cryptography today, and no such computer is on the verge of being created. Nonetheless, in January, the investment bank Jefferies eliminated a 10% Bitcoin allocation from one of its model portfolios, saying that quantum computing risk undermines the store-of-value thesis for the asset over long time horizons. That's clear evidence that addressing the quantum issue has the potential to be a major positive catalyst, as it could entice similarly skittish investors back to the coin, and prevent others from being scared away from it.
In response to this threat, the coin's developers advanced the first formal technical proposal for transitioning the network to using quantum-resistant address types in February, and deployed it on a testnet on March 20. But Bitcoin's upgrade culture is slow. Some past major updates took as long as 8.5 years to reach widespread adoption.
If progress on quantum resistance accelerates, it will remove a growing risk overhang and push prices higher. If a real scare materializes, selling pressure could easily subtract $20,000 from the price, if not more.
3. A war that could cut both ways
Since the U.S.-Israeli strikes on Iran began on Feb. 28, Bitcoin has behaved neither like a haven nor like a standard risk asset. It dropped 8.5% during the opening weekend of the conflict, only to promptly recover. Escalations of the conflict have somehow produced only smaller sell-offs, suggesting that dip buyers are absorbing the successive shocks with increasing confidence.
That resilience has real limits, and those limits are very likely to be tested quite soon. If the conflict pushes oil above $100 per barrel for the foreseeable future and extinguishes hopes of incoming interest rate cuts, risk assets like this coin may face sustained selling.
Furthermore, if, in a worst-case scenario, the energy production infrastructure of the Middle East is largely destroyed or disrupted, it is all but guaranteed that Bitcoin will get dumped immediately in anticipation of an incipient global recession or depression, and it could take years to recover.
Conversely, a swift and plausibly permanent resolution could fuel a rally toward $80,000 to $90,000 in no time flat.
This is the most binary catalyst of the three. The longer the conflict continues to escalate from one day to the next, the higher the odds of a catastrophically bad outcome. Nonetheless, for the moment, the ongoing turbulence in the market could be an opportunity for those who are brave enough to buy the dip.
