There's a lot on the minds of Viking Holdings (VIK +1.64%) shareholders heading into this week's financial update. Unlike the more traditional cruise line operators that have already reported this earnings season, Viking dominates the market for river cruises.
Viking has experience cruising through the headwinds. It's what Viking -- and the Scandinavian Vikings that inspired the corporate moniker -- do. However, this is the first time that the fast-growing cruise line is reporting results since the escalation of the Iran war, the related surge in fuel prices, and the more recent hantavirus scare.
Image source: Getty Images.
Riding the wave
Expectations are high for the upcoming first-quarter results, but it's not the first three months of this year that will decide the stock's direction after Thursday morning's update. Analysts see revenue rising 13% to $1 billion. They expect its quarterly loss to be cut by more than half, with a couple of the more bullish Wall Street pros holding out for a small profit.
The reason the first quarter itself won't be a deal-breaker is that this is Viking's seasonally weakest report. Last year's first quarter accounted for less than 14% of 2025's revenue. Red ink in the first quarter should be more than offset by the peak spring and summer months to follow.
Investors will want to hear how bookings are holding up. That will be the real driver of the stock this week. Even surprising the market with an actual profit for the first quarter -- something that it hasn't done in recent years -- will pale in comparison to how passenger demand is holding up for the balance of this year and beyond.
NYSE: VIK
Key Data Points
Viking is a rock star. By mid-February of this year, it had already sold 86% of its capacity for the 2026 season. It's a luxury brand stock, catering to an older and wealthier clientele than Carnival Corp., Royal Caribbean, and Norwegian Cruise Line.
It plays the long game with longboats, narrow vessels that typically accommodate less than 200 passengers and dozens of crew members. Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and NCL entertain thousands of passengers with hundreds of staff aboard their larger ocean liners.
Viking's market leadership among North American travelers looking to explore the world's famed rivers is dominant. With affluent retirees less prone to economic swings, Viking's target audience is well suited to stomach rising prices to counter the surge in costs to fuel their watery adventures. The hantavirus scare could be more problematic if it's not eradicated sooner rather than later. It already made headlines on a small luxury vessel, and Viking's passenger base can be swayed more by health concerns than wealth concerns.
Earning its premium
The factors that slammed NCL stock earlier this month aren't likely to weigh on Viking this week. NCL -- the last cruise line to report before Thursday's Viking update -- was rocked by weak guidance on margin concerns. NCL doesn't have the same flexibility to pass along rising fuel costs to its more price-sensitive customers as Viking.
It's also no surprise that Viking is growing much faster than its larger peers, operating in a much larger literal and figurative ocean. Viking's revenue soared 22% last year. The three major cruise lines posted single-digit increases, with Carnival, Royal Caribbean, and NCL reporting top-line growth of 6%, 9%, and 4%, respectively. It's also no surprise that Viking has cruised past the more traditional players over the past year as a market fave.
The counterargument here is that Viking trades at a loftier valuation. The stock is trading at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 24, dropping to 19 if you look out to 2027. Royal Caribbean, Carnival, and NCL fetch forward multiples in the low teens and single digits.
Like a cruise sailing itself, sometimes you get what you pay for. NCL has been the industry laggard over the past year despite trading for less than 8 times this year's projected profit. Viking has earned the market premium. If it wants to keep things that way, it will need to make sure there is no softness on booking trends in Thursday's critical financial update.
