Rigetti Computing (RGTI 3.79%), a developer of quantum computing systems, set a record high of $56.34 per share last October. At the time, investors were willing to pay a premium for Rigetti's early mover's advantage in the nascent quantum computing market.
But today, Rigetti's stock trades at about $16. It pulled back as it grappled with tough competition, steep losses, and macro headwinds that deflated its valuation. Will it bounce back over the next 12 months, or will it sink even lower?
Image source: Getty Images.
How fast is Rigetti Computing growing?
Quantum systems can perform certain computing tasks much faster than classical computers, but they're larger, pricier, and more power-hungry. They're also generally less accurate. But over the next few years, quantum companies like Rigetti could address those issues with smaller, cheaper, and more scalable systems that achieve higher error detection rates.
NASDAQ: RGTI
Key Data Points
Rigetti produces modular and non-modular quantum processing units (QPUs), installs them in its own systems, and provides remote access to those systems via its cloud-based Quantum Computing Services (QCS) platform. The company directly sells its Novera QPUs -- which are stand-alone, non-modular systems with nine qubits of processing power -- to government agencies and research institutions. It also operates more powerful non-modular (Ankaa) and modular (Cepheus) systems, but they mainly support its QCS platform.
Over the past few years, Rigetti's revenue growth has been lumpy with widening net losses. That's because its growth was driven by an uneven mix of government and research contracts, occasional Novera shipments, and occasional use of its QCS platform rather than predictable, recurring revenues. It also remains deeply unprofitable.
|
Metric |
2022 |
2023 |
2024 |
2025 |
|---|---|---|---|---|
|
Revenue |
$13.1 million |
$12.0 million |
$10.8 million |
$7.1 million |
|
Net Loss |
($71.5 million) |
($75.1 million) |
($201.0 million) |
($216.2 million) |
Data source: Marketscreener.
Where will Rigetti's stock be in a year?
The bulls believe Rigetti's revenue will soar as it ramps up its Novera shipments (which stopped in 2025 before resuming in 2026), scales its Cepheus systems, and expands QCS.
Assuming all of those tailwinds kick in, analysts expect its revenue to more than triple to $23.6 million in 2026 and grow another 86% to $44 million in 2027. But with a market cap of $5.5 billion, Rigetti still looks expensive at 126 times its 2027 sales.
It also faces stiff competition from other rapidly growing quantum computing companies, such as IonQ, as well as tech giants like IBM that are expanding their own quantum computing businesses. Therefore, I believe Rigetti's stock will either stagnate or sink over the next 12 months as it struggles to justify its sky-high valuations.
