After years of speculation, retail investors may soon get their first chance to own a piece of Elon Musk's space empire. SpaceX is reportedly targeting a Nasdaq debut as early as June 12 under the ticker SPCX, with pricing expected the day before and a roadshow planned to kick off around June 4. At a reported $1.75 trillion target valuation and a raise of about $75 billion, the offering would surpass Saudi Aramco's $29.4 billion debut by more than 2.5 times and stand as the largest initial public offering on record.
It is easy to see why retail interest is so high. The space company has reshaped the economics of orbital launch and now operates the world's largest satellite constellation. SpaceX also folded in artificial intelligence (AI) business xAI in a mostly stock-based deal in February. Then, of course, there's the company's recently announced chip-building effort, in partnership with Tesla, called Terafab. The combined story -- a dominant satellite broadband business paired with a high-profile AI bet -- is the kind of pitch retail investors don't get every day. SpaceX even is reportedly discussing allocating up to 30% of its IPO shares to retail buyers, roughly three times the typical norm, and shareholders just approved a 5-for-1 stock split to make the per-share price easier to access.
But there is a long list of reasons to slow down before clicking 'buy.'
Image source: Getty Images.
A long list of risks
The biggest risk for investors going into the IPO is the reported valuation. At $1.75 trillion, SpaceX would trade at about 100 times revenue, depending on which figure is used (we'll know more exact details when SpaceX makes its S-1 public). Even on more optimistic 2026 revenue projections of above 2025 levels, the valuation multiple still implies the kind of pricing where almost everything has to go right -- for years.
Governance is another concern.
SpaceX reportedly plans a dual-class structure that gives insiders Class B shares carrying 10 votes each, leaving CEO Elon Musk with around 80% of the voting power despite owning about 43% of the equity. Public Class A buyers would get an economic stake but effectively no meaningful ability to influence the board. Pension chiefs from New York and California have already written to push back on what they describe as one of the most management-friendly governance structures ever brought to U.S. public markets.
And Starship is the other major question mark.
The next-generation rocket is essential to the long-term economics of both launches and Starlink, but it flew only five times in 2025 against a 25-flight target. The first flight of Starship Version 3 from the new Pad 2 at Starbase is set for this week -- the latest in a long line of high-stakes tests that may need to succeed for the valuation case to hold.
And competition is closing in. Amazon's Amazon Leo, formerly Project Kuiper, is still tiny relative to SpaceX's Starlink, but the world's largest cloud provider is behind it -- and Amazon could eventually bundle satellite internet with Amazon Web Services or Prime in ways SpaceX cannot easily counter.
Why I'll likely sit this one out
For investors tempted to participate, the combination of an extreme valuation, concentrated voting control, execution risk, and an unpredictable opening price argues for restraint. Investors who do decide to buy, therefore, may want to keep any position small. I'll likely just be watching from the sidelines. The business itself may eventually justify a remarkable valuation. But at this price, on these terms, this is too much risk for me.
With all of this said, investors will be able to get a better sense of the company and form a more educated opinion on the stock after the S-1 filing is made public -- something that could happen any day now.
