Sandisk (SNDK +0.10%) stock jumped 3.8% through 1 p.m. ET Monday. You can thank Wall Street for that.
This morning, UBS analyst Nicolas Gaudois issued a price forecast for DRAM computer memory -- which Sandisk doesn't make; it makes NAND. Nevertheless, his forecast of a 32% sequential DRAM price jump in Q3 2026, which is nearly twice his previous forecast of 17%, has investors thinking that what's good news for DRAM manufacturers such as Samsung and Micron (MU +1.18%) may also be good news for Sandisk.
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Is good news for Micron also good news for Sandisk?
Does this make sense? It might, especially as Sandisk makes a form of high-bandwidth flash (HBF) NAND memory that can fulfill functions similar to Micron's DRAM high-bandwidth memory (HBM) chips. According to Gaudois, DRAM supply will remain in deficit globally "until at least 2Q28." That's likely to force Micron customers to seek alternatives, and Sandisk's "HBF" might be one of them.
Arguably even more propitious: Gaudois sees DRAM supply growing 19.3% next year, but demand growing 36.2%. So not only is the deficit not shrinking. It's getting bigger!
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What this means for Sandisk stock
Memory demand may generate $992 billion in industry sales this year, then nearly double to $1.76 trillion in 2027 as volumes rise -- and prices rise even faster. Citi is raising forecasts (for Micron, at least) and predicting sequential DRAM price increases of up to 44% in Q2 2026, 20% in Q3, and 13% in Q4, and Bank of America is reiterating its buy rating (again, on Micron) today.
It's all good news for Micron investors. Whether it's good news for Sandisk is the question. And the even bigger question: Is it good enough to justify Sandisk's P/E ratio, which at 60x, is three times the price of Micron?
