Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +3.19%) has drawn a great amount of excitement in recent times. The company, better known as SpaceX, completed the world's biggest initial public offering last month -- and saw its stock soar 27% in the first days of trading.
In recent times, SpaceX stock has pulled back, even falling below its IPO price of $135. But even at this level, I think the stock is too expensive considering the risk involved -- that's why I'm still not buying. Let's check out the details.
Image source: Getty Images.
A smart mix of businesses
It's true that SpaceX offers a smart mix of growth businesses -- rocket launches, connectivity, and artificial intelligence (AI) -- and these businesses can work together to deliver efficiency. For example, SpaceX can use its rockets to deliver materials to space for the satellite-based internet service and the AI business. This offers SpaceX great autonomy and keeps costs down.
The company has also made progress on goals such as bringing down the costs of rocket launches, and last year it completed more orbital launches than any other player. The connectivity business has seen its subscribers quadruple over three years, and this growth is key since this unit drives revenue growth.
All of that is positive, and SpaceX, at $119 at the July 20 market close, is considerably lower than it was a few weeks ago. But I'm still not buying because the stock is expensive given the amount of risk involved. Prior to the IPO, Morningstar said its fair value for SpaceX was $63, which seems reasonable; today, the SpaceX price remains far from that level.
NASDAQ: SPCX
Key Data Points
Upcoming earnings reports
I also think that before diving in, it's important to take a look at an earnings report or two to monitor the company's spending trends and the level of revenue that's being generated. So far, we may look at the financial picture over the past three years, as provided in the prospectus. But since SpaceX's capital expenditures are increasing, I'd like to see fresh earnings data.
This is particularly key for a company like SpaceX, which has many goals linked to technologies that are still in development. For example, as SpaceX increases capital spending, is its revenue climbing at a fast pace? Last year, capex of $20 billion exceeded revenue, which was $18 billion. I'd like to see revenue step ahead in the coming quarters.
At this point, SpaceX remains an interesting business that's made progress in key areas. The company could have a very bright future several years down the road, so I understand that some investors aim to get in early. But in my opinion, risk remains high, and visibility remains limited -- so even though SpaceX stock has declined, I'm still not buying.
