Next Tuesday, Aug. 4, is going to be a big day in the stock market. The IPO stock Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX -3.41%) will report its first earnings as a public company. Investors are expecting massive growth and guidance from the Elon Musk enterprise, which was the largest IPO in history earlier this year.
There is also the flood of unlocked insider shares about to hit the market, which could cause even more volatility for shareholders. Here's the skinny on the upcoming earnings report, the post-IPO dynamics, and whether SpaceX stock could be a buy for long-term investors today.
NASDAQ: SPCX
Key Data Points
SpaceX's massive expectations
When SpaceX reports earnings, investors will be looking at the continued progress of its space and artificial intelligence (AI) endeavors. Importantly, investors care about the growth of the Starlink satellite internet business, which is supposed to be the major cash cow in the next few years. In 2025, this segment grew revenue 50% year over year with impressive profit margins.
There are also expectations of accelerated growth from the AI infrastructure business, which generated only $3.2 billion in revenue last year, including advertising sales from X, the platform formerly known as Twitter. With major deals signed with the likes of Anthropic and Alphabet to sell AI compute at its data centers, SpaceX should begin to see growth accelerate this quarter, with expectations for even greater AI gains in the years ahead.
All told, investors are expecting second-quarter revenues of $6.9 billion, representing 68% year-over-year growth. However, for Wall Street analysts, this is where the growth party just gets started. Revenue growth across the entire business is expected to be around 100% for all of 2026 and 2027, leading 2027 revenues to balloon to $80 billion, up from $18.7 billion in 2025.
Image source: Getty Images.
A lockup period and short-term volatility
Along with this earnings report, investors should be mindful of the upcoming end of the SpaceX IPO lockup period. A large chunk of shares is set to be unlocked on Aug. 6, two days after the report. These are insiders, not Elon Musk, who have held their shares privately for many years and are now collectively worth hundreds of billions of dollars.
What is likely to happen in the months ahead is a flood of sell orders from these insiders, who are generally professional investors looking to send gains back to their partners. For a stock with a market cap of $1.5 trillion, this stream of sell orders could push the share price down. This is what typically happens after an IPO, and it's why the average IPO stock underperforms the market in the year following its debut.
Should you buy SpaceX stock before earnings?
For any investor looking to buy the dip on SpaceX -- shares are down 44% from highs -- it is important to understand this lockup period dynamic when making any investment decision. However, what will matter most over the long term is SpaceX's fundamental business growth, and the price you pay for it today.
Wall Street expectations for 100% revenue growth in both 2026 and 2027 are massive and would be a huge acceleration from 2025 growth. There is a potential for SpaceX to resell AI data center computing power that is not being used for its research and the Grok chatbot, but the question is what profit margins this reselling to hyperscalers will yield. I think low.
Starlink is a great business, but it generated just $11.4 billion in revenue last year, while SpaceX has a market cap of $1.5 trillion. I think the massive expectations of SpaceX's growth, along with this lockup period, are going to lead to a sinking stock price for the rest of 2026. This makes the stock one to avoid before earnings. Keep it on the watch list for now, and buy at a much lower price in the years ahead if you like the business quality.
