Bitcoin (BTC +0.47%) may be down, but it's not out. A surprising number of analysts and investors now think that it could reclaim the $100,000 price level by the end of the year.
In July, Standard Chartered (SCBFY -0.22%) doubled down on its $100,000 price target, calling Bitcoin a "screaming buy" at its current price level of $64,000. While Bitcoin is known for its spectacular year-end rallies, does it really have enough left in the tank to soar 56% by the end of the year?
Key factors for Bitcoin
According to Standard Chartered, Bitcoin's price has been held down this year by all the hand-wringing over the financial condition of Bitcoin treasury companies such as Strategy (MSTR -1.54%). Instead of hoarding its Bitcoin, Strategy is now selling some of it, and that has spooked investors.
At the same time, a number of Bitcoin-focused companies are now pivoting into artificial intelligence. Take Bitcoin miners, for example. Bitcoin was fun while it lasted, but now it's time to move into the next "hot" sector. Some Bitcoin miners are dumping their Bitcoin and then using those funds to buy the computing infrastructure necessary for AI.
Image source: Jester AI.
But this is only a short-term problem, says Standard Chartered. It fully expects the situation around Strategy to stabilize. And given the growing concerns about an AI bubble, it's quite possible that some of the companies that pivoted into AI may soon pivot back to crypto.
Moreover, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs appear to be returning. For much of the year, money has been flowing out of these spot Bitcoin ETFs, as investors move their money elsewhere. But those outflows appear to have peaked. Slowly but surely, institutional investors are moving money back into Bitcoin, and that should help to boost its price going forward.
Bitcoin's cycle of boom and bust
And don't forget -- Bitcoin is highly cyclical. Yes, Bitcoin is down a stunning 49% from its October 2025 peak. But crypto investors have seen this story before. During previous market cycles, the total drawdown in Bitcoin has been as high as 94%. Each time, however, Bitcoin has recovered.
CRYPTO: BTC
Key Data Points
In fact, after every major drawdown, Bitcoin has more than recovered. It has marched to a new all-time high. Take the last Bitcoin bear market cycle, for example. Bitcoin lost 64% of its value in 2022 and fell as low as $16,000. However, by the end of 2024, it was already trading at the $100,000 price level.
Is it too much to hope for a similar type of stellar comeback for Bitcoin? Perhaps. But I'm still expecting a major year-end rally for Bitcoin to send it past the $100,000 price level. It's exactly the type of unstoppable cryptocurrency that I'm looking to add to my portfolio right now.
