XRP (XRP -0.56%) has spent 2026 languishing in wait for the U.S. Congress, which keeps missing its deadlines. The coin is about 70% below its all-time high of $3.65, which was set last year.
I predict that the cryptocurrency could go parabolic after the 2026 U.S. midterm elections on Nov. 3. Whether it happens depends on the election results and on the passage (or, with a high probability, deferral with a high probability of later passage) of the Clarity Act. Here's why those two things matter so much.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
The election will affect three issues in particular
Three issues that voters will partially decide in the upcoming election are whether the next Congress is going to be friendly to large financial institutions, whether it's friendly to crypto as an industry, and whether it's friendly to those institutions (not to mention the public) competing in crypto or using its technologies as part of their operations. Lawmakers could, in theory, answer yes to two of those questions and still decline (or punt) on the third. The third issue will probably affect XRP the most.
CRYPTO: XRP
Key Data Points
Ripple, which issues XRP, won conditional approval in December 2025 to open a federally supervised national trust bank, thereby giving banks a regulated counterparty in crypto. XRP is the bridge asset in that plumbing, and it's Ripple's aspiration for the token to become the medium that institutions would move value through, and for its ledger to become the platform that institutions would use to manage and trade their tokenized assets.
A Congress with a mix of new members, such that the resulting balance of power in 2027 and beyond favors Ripple's goals, would make XRP a first stop for banks testing crypto. It could drive a lot of adoption of the coin, to say the least.
On the other hand, a new balance of power that seeks to contain crypto -- a very real possibility -- would starve the pipeline of fresh capital available to XRP without ever naming the coin or passing a law against it.
The Clarity Act's looming deadline is intensifying the effect of the election
The Clarity Act, currently in Congress, would codify the crypto market structure. Generally speaking, that's what institutional compliance departments want.
If it passes, those actors would have a much freer hand in onboarding capital to institution-focused blockchains like the XRP Ledger. Major legal risks and potential compliance gaps would be defused, probably for years to come. But bills must be passed by Jan. 3, 2027, to become law, and reviving any bills that didn't make the deadline means starting over and renegotiating with (at least partially) a new set of people. So there's a fork in the road coming up.
A friendlier Congress could deliver the framework that would benefit XRP, whereas a more skeptical legislature could reopen settled issues or chip away at established structures. If the Clarity Act is punted to next year, the importance of the election will only increase. That could be the fuel for a parabolic move in XRP, if the stars align.
