The five largest companies in the world by market capitalization are:
- Nvidia (NVDA +2.46%) at $5.27 trillion
- Apple (AAPL +1.02%) at $4.77 trillion
- Alphabet (GOOG +0.64%) (GOOGL +0.71%) at $4.04 trillion
- Microsoft (MSFT +1.08%) at $3.66 trillion
- Amazon (AMZN +2.10%) at $2.72 trillion
These companies have risen to the top after years of incredible work. History tells us that the company at the top doesn't stay there forever, but some can reign for a long time, as Apple was on top for over a decade.
So, will Nvidia be able to fend off these other four over the next few years? Could there be another that rises and steals the spotlight? I think Nvidia is nearly locked in as the largest company by 2028, assuming nothing collapses in the artificial intelligence (AI) build-out.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Nvidia is well-positioned to take advantage of the AI arms race
It's hard to debate that anything else is more important to our economic future than AI development. This emerging technology will dramatically shift how business is done over the next few years, so pinpointing companies well-positioned to capitalize on that shift is key to investment success.
NASDAQ: NVDA
Key Data Points
Nvidia is by far the biggest pure play on this list, as it sells computing equipment to AI hyperscalers so they can continue training and developing AI models with greater impact. With demand for computing power growing again and again each year, it's well-positioned to continue expanding its lead in the rankings of the world's largest companies for several years.
But can any of these four challenge it? I don't think so, based on today's business trajectory.
Apple is the closest at No. 2, but it hasn't embraced AI openly as several others have. While a monthly subscription to AI features on Apple's platforms could be a huge moneymaker that pushes Apple's stock higher, I don't think that will happen in the next year or so because this wasn't mentioned during their recent event. Of the five, Apple likely has the most to lose going forward.
NASDAQ: AAPL
Key Data Points
The next three are all very similar, with one small caveat. Microsoft, Amazon, and Alphabet are all involved in the AI arms race in several ways, but most notably through their cloud computing platforms. AI firms can come to these three to rent out computing power to train and run AI models, and this is a booming business for all of them. However, none of these companies (except Alphabet) have their own AI model, so they let clients use whatever AI data sets they want on their platforms.
While this isn't a bad thing, it may not pan out if one of the major AI firms (like OpenAI or Anthropic) decides to launch its own cloud services as the only place where you can use its model. I don't see that happening, but that is a major risk.
Regardless, one thing is for sure: We don't have enough AI computing power. And that will push Nvidia to new heights, helping it maintain its crown by 2028.
Nvidia forecasts huge growth
Next year, Nvidia expects to grow its revenue at a 70% clip, further extending the fastest growth rate we've ever seen from a company of Nvidia's size. This will substantially widen the gap between Nvidia and its peers, which is why its earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization (EBITDA) estimates for the next fiscal year are much higher.
NVDA EBITDA Estimates for Next Fiscal Year data by YCharts
This gap will likely widen again in 2028, and I think that's all the information investors need to know; Nvidia will maintain its status as the world's largest company through 2028.
