With 2027 almost upon us, Monster Beverage (MNST -0.29%) doesn't have much time to outperform or at least match the run-up of the S&P 500 this year. Year to date, Monster shares are up about 10%, while the S&P 500 has climbed 12.5%.
Taking a step back and looking out a little further, however, that performance could look different by this time next year.
Image source: The Motley Fool.
Where the Monster Beverage stock price could head next
Despite currently lagging the S&P 500, Monster shared positive results for its 2026 second-quarter earnings report on Aug. 6. The energy drink maker reported net sales had climbed 20.2% from the prior-year period to $2.5 billion, while net income increased 19.6% to $584.5 million.
If Monster can keep delivering results like this, the stock price may eventually offer some outperformance, and that appears to be what analysts are anticipating. According to CNN, of the 28 analysts who cover the stock, the group's median one-year price forecast is $50.50. Based on the closing price of $43.11 on Sept. 25, that represents a 17.1% potential gain. For a broader outlook, the highest target, $57, would represent a 32.2% gain, while the lowest target, $42, would represent a 2.5% loss.
While price targets in and of themselves shouldn't account for the majority of an investing thesis, they do help create risk-to-reward frameworks. This framework looks promising for Monster, as the bear case for the stock only suggests a 2.5% loss, while the base case suggests a 17.1% gain. And if the most bullish case wins out, that $57 price target would equate to a 32.2% gain.
NASDAQ: MNST
Key Data Points
The past and future
For context on beating the S&P 500 and how Monster shares may need to perform to do so going forward, we can look to history as our guide. The 30-year average return for the S&P 500 from January 1996 through December 2025 is 10.4%, according to Fidelity Investments. And for more context, over the last five years, Monster's stock price has climbed roughly 86%, while the S&P is up nearly 74% over the same period.
Previous performances aren't guaranteed to be repeated, but again, history gives us some guideposts to work from. And with Monster steadily increasing sales and profitability in a crowded market, that outperformance of the S&P 500 over the past five years has room to continue.
The energy drink maker has international revenue growth opportunities, with net sales outside the United States increasing 34.6% in the second quarter of 2026, accounting for 46% of the company's total sales. It also has an alcohol segment, which, while currently experiencing a sales decline, could eventually become a meaningful revenue generator. Monster has plenty of room to treat it like an experimental division and keep tinkering to see if it catches on with consumers. And as it tinkers with that division, it's still gaining shelf space beyond its energy drinks, further spreading the Monster name.
Overall, with those future opportunities ahead and the company's track record of rewarding shareholders, I would be comfortable buying Monster stock as a long-term investment, even though the stock currently lags the S&P 500.
