On Holding AG (ONON -0.84%), the Swiss running and sports shoe brand known for its cushioned Cloud sneakers, is down about 52% from the all-time high it hit in January 2025. That's a steep fall for a company that's still growing sales at a pace most retailers would envy.
The stock's problem isn't that On stopped growing; it's that growth has been decelerating from truly exceptional to merely very good, and Wall Street priced the stock for the former. On's answer has been to open two entirely new categories, football and golf, built around one of the biggest athlete signings in years.
On's second-quarter net sales rose 21.6% in constant currency, a number most apparel companies would celebrate, but it missed analyst expectations, and On trimmed its full-year growth outlook to the low-20% range from a prior floor of 23%. None of that signals a broken business, but it does mean the market, which had treated On like a company that could only accelerate, is now pricing in a more normal deceleration curve.
Let's see what this could all mean for investors.
NYSE: ONON
Key Data Points
Mbappé and football give On access to a market worth tens of billions
In September, On signed French striker Kylian Mbappé as a global ambassador, pulling him away from a roughly 20-year relationship with Nike, with a deal reportedly including both cash and an equity stake that makes him a shareholder in On itself. On also brought on French legend Thierry Henry as its new director of football.
On's first football boots won't ship until 2027, according to The New York Times, so this is a long-game move, but the market is enormous: Global football apparel is projected to earn around $49.9 billion in 2026, and football-specific footwear alone is estimated near $21.7 billion, according to The Business Research Company.
Nike and Adidas have dominated that space for decades. Signing one of the sport's most marketable players is On's way of buying instant credibility in a category where a new premium brand would otherwise take years to be taken seriously.
NYSE: NKE
Key Data Points
Golf is smaller, but it fits On's premium playbook perfectly
On also announced it will launch golf footwear and apparel in the first half of 2027, aimed at what the company describes as a younger, more style-conscious golfer. On's own pitch to investors leaned on golf being the most premium sport in the world, with On citing annual golf gear spending as the prize, per WWD. Golf is a much smaller pool than football, but it's a better match for On's business model, which has always been about charging full price to a customer willing to pay for performance and design rather than chasing the mass market on discounts.
Image source: Getty Images.
What this means for On's 2029 targets, and whether the stock is a buy
At its September investor day, On set a target of high-teens annual sales growth in constant currency through 2029, aiming for at least 5.6 billion Swiss francs, roughly $7 billion, in net sales, alongside a gross margin above 65% and an adjusted EBITDA margin above 22%. Management also authorized a $1 billion stock buyback.
It's worth being clear-eyed about one thing, though: On's own presentation framed running, sneakers, and apparel as the main drivers of that growth, with football and golf described as supporting, newer categories rather than the primary engine. Neither will contribute meaningful revenue before 2027 at the earliest.
That makes the football and golf pushes more of a multi-year credibility and brand-expansion story than an immediate fix for the deceleration that knocked the stock down in the first place. I'd treat On as a reasonable long-term buy for investors comfortable owning a premium brand through a slower growth patch.
