Micron (MU -0.77%) stock fell for a fourth straight day Thursday, continuing a rout that began with Monday's announcement that Chinese DRAM company ChangXin Memory Technologies, or CXMT, has invented "4F square" technology to increase DRAM storage density -- and may soon be coming for Micron's market share.
Micron stock is down 2.8% as of 10:35 a.m. ET, and down 13.5% so far this week.
Image source: Micron.
What is CXMT and how scared should we be?
Global market intelligence company Trendforce says CXMT holds 9.5% of the global DRAM memory market, putting it in fourth place behind Samsung (39.4%), SK Hynix (24.9%), and Micron (23.3%).
DRAM is the biggest part of Micron's business, providing 73% of the company's revenue. (The other 26% comes from sales of NAND flash memory.)
MU Micron Technology
NASDAQ · As of 2:37 PM ET 10/15/26
A reason to buy Micron
Why is that important? KeyBanc analyst John Vinh predicts DRAM prices will rise 15% to 20% year over year in Q4 2026, while NAND prices rise 20%. That gives Micron two ways to profit from the global deficit in memory chips.
High-bandwidth memory -- the most lucrative segment of this market for Micron and the area where CXMT is weakest -- could see prices rise 80% to 100% in Q1 2027. But now here's the important point:
Memory companies that operate logically will emphasize production of HBM DRAM for artificial intelligence data centers -- because that's where the money is. Doing so, Vinh predicts they will cut DRAM production for cellphones and PCs by 20% to 30% next year. CXMT's DRAM, which is "two or three generations" behind Micron, will most likely go to fill this low-end gap -- leaving Micron free to reap better margins producing high-end HBM DRAM!
In this case, CXMT mayn't be as big a threat as investors fear. Micron's profit margins should be safe.
