Breakfast News: Your Weekly Rundown

Breakfast News: Your Weekly Rundown

Source: Image Created by Jester AI.

1. Eyes on Jackson Hole

Every Monday in Breakfast News, we look forward to what's coming up in the week ahead. The strength of the stock market is adding to the dilemma facing economic leaders as they head for the annual Jackson Hole Economic Symposium in Wyoming on Friday, where Jerome Powell's speech – likely his last as Federal Reserve Chair – will top the bill.

• "The timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks": That was Powell last August when it looked like inflation might be beaten. But the outlook seems less clear now, with two governors dissenting from his "wait and see" stance at July's Fed meeting – the minutes will be out Wednesday.
• 85% chance of a cut: The CME FedWatch tool shows slightly slowing confidence in a 0.25% cut at September's meeting – it reached 94% last week. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq edged up another 1% last week and are close to all-time records, even as July's Producer Price Index (PPI) reached a 3-year high and the jobs outlook weakened somewhat.

2. Key Retail Updates This Week

Retail earnings and outlook are factors in economic decisions, and we kick the week off with a Q2 update from Dividend Investor recommendation Home Depot (HD -0.23%) Tuesday. Earnings missed estimates in Q1, as the company forecast sales growth under 3% for the full year. Any change in that could be telling.

• Currently ranked 8th on Stock Advisor for its ability to beat the market over 5 years: TJX Companies (TJX 0.26%) reports Q2 Wednesday, after beating Q1 revenue and earnings expectations. Watch for the company's ability to deal with tariff-related pressures. Target (TGT 1.80%) and Lowe's (LOW -0.38%) report the same day.
• A bellwether for retail health: Thursday brings a Q2 print from Walmart (WMT 0.36%), after it posted beats in Q1 – but predicted price rises to come as tariffs would be too much to absorb. Full-year revenue guidance was maintained, and we'll want to see more on that.

3. Tech Updates Due from PANW, ZM, WDAY

It's Q4 and FY time for Rule Breakers rec Palo Alto Networks (PANW -0.16%) after today's closing bell, with the stock up 300% in the past 5 years. Wall Street expects the cybersecurity solutions provider to post sales and earnings growth of 14-17% year over year.

• Down 90% since pandemic high: Zoom Communications (ZM -0.06%) brings us a Q2 update Thursday, after a period of struggling to get growth back on track. Q1 revenue hit targets with the company's AI Companion tools providing optimism.
• Subscription revenue growth boosting cash flow: Thursday's Q2 update from workplace management software company Workday (WDAY 0.43%) will hopefully build on top- and bottom-line Q1 beats, though investors were disappointed to see no rise in full-year guidance at the time.

4. Individual Investors Drive the Market

Goldman Sachs (GS -2.21%) reports private retail investors are a growing force in the U.S. stock market. On peak days this year they've made up over 28% of S&P 500 volumes, and their trading has played a key part in market swings.

• "We're in a high-risk bull market": CEO Bob Doll at Crossmark warns investors are "discounting a near-perfect world – and it's not perfect." Meanwhile, Goldman Sachs' Speculative Trading Indicator – a risk-taking measure – hit 114 in August as individuals are increasingly drawn to high-flying AI tech stocks.
• "We have a really bifurcated economy right now": Tim Murray at T. Rowe Price (TROW -0.10%) stressed the force of AI investment, saying non-AI stocks are stuck in a "muddle-through" phase.

5. Your Take

Do you think it's better to be right 60% of the time with big positions, or 80% of the time with smaller positions? Debate with friends and family, or become a member to hear what your fellow Fools are saying.