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Foolish Forecast: Divining DuPont

By Rich Smith – Updated Nov 15, 2016 at 6:07PM

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Views you can use to get clues on tomorrow's news.

Chemical king DuPont (NYSE:DD) reports its Q4 and full-year 2005 earnings numbers before the market opens tomorrow. Here's a quick rundown of what you'll need to know to put the news in context.

Wall Street Wisdom:

  • General consensus. Fifteen analysts follow DuPont, of whom 11 rate the company a "buy," with the rest voting "hold." Not a "sell" in sight.
  • Revenues. Here's something you don't see often. A year ago, DuPont made $6.03 billion in sales. The analysts' prediction for tomorrow? $6.03 billion once again.
  • Earnings. Unfortunately, the same doesn't hold true for earnings. Analysts expect them to plunge 73% versus last year, to just $0.10 per share.

Margin watch:
Reviewing the company's recent performance in transforming top-line sales into bottom-line profits, here's what we see:

Margins

6/04

9/04

12/04

3/05

6/05

9/05

Gross

27%

27.8%

28.1%

29.3%

30.2%

30%

Op.

10.8%

11.7%

11.5%

12.6%

13.4%

13%

Net

3.2%

7.4%

6.3%

7.5%

9.3%

7.7%

All data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ending in the named months.

Can you say "turnaround"? Things don't look so hot consecutively over the past two quarters, but when compared to their year-ago equivalents, DuPont is showing signs of life. Keep a sharp eye out for more of those on the morrow. (Learn more about margins.)

Valuation:
DuPont sports a trailing P/E of 18, but beware. On a free cash flow basis, this company's positively acidic, with a price-to-free cash flow ratio of 33. Either way, the company's projected growth rate of less than 10% makes these shares look overpriced today. Then again, that might just be the best time to buy a cyclical company. (Brush up on valuation.)

Competitors:
Deutschland seems uberalles of DuPont's competitive landscape. Its top two competitors are Bayer (NYSE:BAY) and BASF (NYSE:BF). Locally, it's Dow Chemical (NYSE:DOW) you want to look out for.

Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of any company named above. Dow Chemical is a Motley Fool Income Investor pick. The Fool has a disclosure policy .

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Stocks Mentioned

E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company Stock Quote
E. I. du Pont de Nemours and Company
DD
DuPont de Nemours, Inc. Stock Quote
DuPont de Nemours, Inc.
DOW

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