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I Don't Love This New York

By John A. Howard, CFA – Updated Nov 15, 2016 at 12:59AM

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Don't let this stock's high dividend yield lull you into complacency.

Don't be fooled by New York Community Bancorp's (NYSE:NYB) tempting yield. A majority of its analysts may rate it a "buy," but for my money, I'd choose another high-yielding bank stock with a better chance of growing its dividend.

Remember, you should never consider a stock's yield without also looking at its payout ratio -- the dividend per share divided by earnings per share. The payout ratio increases when dividends grow faster than earnings, and (all else staying constant) the higher the ratio, the more likely that a drop in earnings will lead to a dividend cut. When a payout ratio tops 100%, a company is actually eating into its capital to support its dividend.

That's precisely what happened at New York Community Bancorp, despite its impressive growth throughout the early 2000s. EPS increased from $0.32 in 2000 to $0.75 in 2001, eventually peaking at $1.65 in 2003. Dividends increased in lockstep, from $0.25 per share in 2000 to roughly $0.66 in 2003.

But in 2004, earnings started to slide. EPS dropped to $1.33 in 2004, then $1.11 in 2005, and $0.81 in 2006. For the most part, the fault lay with an inverted yield curve, although a few one-time charges -- some related to acquisitions -- didn't help, either. Meanwhile, the dividend rose to a buck per share in 2005, where it remains today. Remember that payout ratio? It was 123% for 2006. Ouch.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not saying that it's inevitable, or even likely, that the company will cut its dividend. Most analysts predict a rebound in earnings, with a consensus estimate of $0.93 per share for 2007 and $1.04 for 2008. But why take the risk, especially when New York Community Bancorp's near-term fundamentals aren't too compelling to begin with?

Several other good banks offer modestly lower dividend yields, but their dividends are far more secure and offer better growth prospects. Take a look at Susqehanna Bancshares (NASDAQ:SUSQ), Cadence Financial Corporation (NASDAQ:CADE), US Bancorp (NYSE:USB), Citigroup (NYSE:C), and Wachovia (NYSE:WB). All have dividend yields of roughly 4% or more, and all have payout ratios low enough to leave room for dividend growth over the next few years. Compared to New York Community Bancorp, I'll bet they'd offer you a higher total return, too.

US Bancorp is a Motley Fool Income Investor recommendation. James Early separates dividend payers from the dividend fakers in his market-beating investing service. See for yourself with a free 30-day trial.

Fool contributor John A. (Buddy) Howard, CFA, does not own stock in any of the companies mentioned. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

New York Community Bancorp, Inc. Stock Quote
New York Community Bancorp, Inc.
NYCB
$8.91 (-1.22%) $0.11
Citigroup Inc. Stock Quote
Citigroup Inc.
C
$44.26 (-2.90%) $-1.32
U.S. Bancorp Stock Quote
U.S. Bancorp
USB
$42.12 (-2.12%) $0.91

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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