When one of the best and brightest investors in academia speaks, you better believe I listen. That's why when Jeremy Siegel, author of Stocks For The Long Run, said that companies that experience rapid growth often don't generate good returns for investors, I stepped back and did a double take. Isn't that what we're always looking for: Companies that can grow, expand, and increase revenues and earnings? According to Siegel -- not really.
Don't fall for it
Siegel thinks that trailblazing stocks often do much worse than the plain-vanilla stocks in which no one is interested. Evaluating history, he says, "Although the earnings, sales and even market values of the new firms grew faster than those of the older firms, the price investors paid for these stocks was simply too high to generate good returns." These stocks are growth traps, in other words.
OK -- so we have to avoid companies trading at outrageously high levels, and particularly ones in uncertain industries, where potential growth is questionable. So scooping up shares of Yahoo!
The bottom line is that investors often expect a company to experience excessive growth, so they're willing to pay a very high premium for good companies with debatable growth. This, in essence, is what Siegel calls "the growth trap." This is what you need to avoid.
The critical factor
According to Siegel, there is but one critical factor when it comes to investing for the long run. Favor dividend-paying stocks, and reinvest those dividends. To illustrate his point, Professor Siegel uses an example of two opposing investments.
Consider an investor who put $1,000 in IBM
Siegel found that over the same time period, the best-performing stocks were companies with strong dividends -- for example, Coca-Cola
Triumph with simplicity
It's difficult not to get wrapped up in new industry stocks. They're exciting; you envision yourself investing in the next Sun Microsystems
For example, here are some lesser-known stocks that currently have manageable payout ratios and similar P/E profiles to those of Coca Cola and ExxonMobil:
Company |
Dividend Yield |
Dividend Payout Ratio |
Forward P/E Ratio |
---|---|---|---|
Innophos Holdings |
3.3% |
12% |
12.4 |
Koppers Holdings |
3.1% |
16% |
10.7 |
Diageo |
4.3% |
55% |
12.8 |
Data from Yahoo! Finance.
These companies pay great dividends, trade cheaply, and sport reasonable payout ratios that indicate they're not vulnerable to future dividend cuts. Too high of a payout ratio is dangerous -- should a company's earnings decrease unexpectedly, it may have to cut dividends. Companies try like heck not to do this, because it makes investors and analysts panic. Additionally, these are predictable, essential companies -- they produce phosphates for food production; manufacture commercial wood treatments for the chemical, railroad, and steel industries; and distribute spirits, beer, and wine. While I always suggest doing more due diligence before drawing a conclusion about any stock, I can definitely say these are not the types of companies that fall into the "growth trap."
Just like Jeremy Siegel, our analysts at Income Investor look for a few simple attributes. They buy cheap. They buy reputable companies. And most importantly, they reinvest dividends. And ultimately, they've proved successful: Since inception, our team is beating the S&P by more than seven percentage points.
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Fool contributor Jordan DiPietro owns no shares of the companies above, but loves seeing his dividends accumulate more shares. Intuitive Surgical is a Rule Breakers pick. Coca-Cola is an Inside Value pick, and both Coca-Cola and Diageo are Income Investor recommendations. The Fool owns shares of Innophos. The Fool frequently reinvests in its disclosure policy.