When the best stock analysts in our 160,000-member CAPS investing community suddenly close their outperform picks, it generally means that they sense something bad happening in that industry, which may signal a good opportunity to think about shorting. But that analysis doesn't work when the stocks the All-Stars flee are all ultrashort ETFs.
What's an ultrashort ETF?
Short ETFs are specially hedged investment vehicles that attempt to mimic the results of shorting something, whether it's an industry, an economic region, or the market in general. Ultrashort ETFs are similar, but they use leverage to attempt to magnify their movement -- moving twice the inverse of the S&P, for example. While these ETFs can present numerous problems for individual investors, they can be a valuable way to hedge a portfolio, or, for stock analysts in the CAPS community, a great way to grab gains in a general bear market.
What does this loss of confidence mean?
As I mentioned before, when CAPS members end a large number of outperform picks, it means that the community has doubts about the future performance of that sector. Ending an outperform on an ultrashort, though, may be an indication that the community is becoming more bullish on the market in general. A look at the big movers seems to suggest that this bullish sentiment isn't restricted to one market, either.
Percent Change in All-Star Outperform Picks
UltraPro Short QQQ
ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods Fund
ProShares Short Russell 2000
ProShares Short MidCap400
UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares
ProShares UltraShort Russell1000 Growth
|ProShares UltraShort Industrials||(33%)|
|UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares||(32%)|
|UltraShort Technology ProShares||(30%)|
|UltraShort Russell2000 Growth ProShares||(24%)|
Europe, consumer goods, and all sorts of variations on the Russell 2000 -- it seems like this isn't a narrowly focused movement in response to a local change. This is a general retreat from short ETFs across the entire market.
Wait -- where are the ultralong picks?
While the All-Stars are pulling out of ultrashorts, there doesn't seem to be any movement into their sister investment vehicles, the ultralong ETFs. It seems that the best stock pickers are no longer confident that the market will drop, but they're unwilling to bet on a rise, either.
Is the CAPS community right? Are we seeing the end of a bear market, if not the start of a bullish one? Keep your eyes on all of these companies by adding them to My Watchlist, your free and customized hub for the news and numbers on the companies you care about. Just click below to start.
- Add UltraPro Short QQQ to My Watchlist.
- Add ProShares UltraShort Consumer Goods Fund to My Watchlist.
- Add ProShares Short Russell 2000 to My Watchlist.
- Add ProShares Short MidCap400 to My Watchlist.
- Add UltraShort Semiconductors ProShares to My Watchlist.
- Add ProShares UltraShort Russell1000 Growth to My Watchlist.
- Add Ultrashort Europe to My Watchlist.
- Add ProShares UltraShort Industrials to My Watchlist.
- Add UltraShort Russell MidCap Value ProShares to My Watchlist.
- Add UltraShort Technology ProShares to My Watchlist.
- Add UltraShort Russell2000 Growth ProShares to My Watchlist.
Chris Harris doesn't own shares of any company mentioned. Try any of our Foolish newsletter services free for 30 days. We Fools may not all hold the same opinions, but we all believe that considering a diverse range of insights makes us better investors. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.