I'm starting to feel like Kevin Bacon in the parade scene at the end of Animal House, where he's standing in his ROTC uniform, drowning in the middle of the panicked mob, smiling and yelling, "All is well!"
To be honest, all is not exactly well at Nokia (NYSE:NOK). After all, the firm has been spanked because of a pretty decent whiff in first-quarter revenues. To summarize, it had hoped for a revenue increase on the order of 3% to 7%, and it in fact lost market share to competitors Motorola (NYSE:MOT), Samsung, and Ericsson (NASDAQ:ERICY), while turning in lower sales.
After that pre-announcement, while everyone was screaming and heading for the exits, I quietly suggested that Nokia's past history of sisu (fortitude in the face of adversity), plus a little thing like ample free cash flow, was more than enough reason to stick with the stock, or even get some on a discount. (Oddly, there are some wise folks who seem to agree.)
With today's official Q1 earnings announcement on the wire, the firm has been hacked for another 10% loss. The reason's not the EUR 0.17 per share earnings, which represents a 15% slim-down from the prior-year quarter. The Street is dumping shares again because the firm lowered its second-quarter guidance to predict flat sales and earnings around EUR 0.14, which comes in about 25% less than estimates.
Let's be clear: Nokia screwed up. But let's also note that the remedy is going to take a little time -- a couple of quarters, by the firm's estimates. Unfortunately, for current shareholders, Mr. Market is not known for patience. Witness idiotic headlines such as "Turnaround Eludes Nokia." Please. How can anyone pretend to expect a turnaround in the 10 days between the preannouncement and now?
Luckily for patient, value-oriented investors who aren't afraid to move against the herd, stupidaggini like these cause further fear. Sure there's risk here, but if you believe, as I do, that Nokia is a survivor, the current panic will offer plenty of opportunity to get in at a discount.
Gnash your teeth and share your pain, or enthusiasm, on the Fool's Nokia discussion board.
Fool contributor Seth Jayson has no stake in any firm mentioned above. View his Fool profile here.
