The last time we glanced at the world's largest swimming pool supply wholesaler, SCP Pool (NASDAQ:POOL) was putting the finishing touches on a three-year growth spurt in which net income doubled and free cash flow quintupled. There are no indications of the company cooling off, though, as second-quarter guidance was recently lifted to $1.15 to $1.17. This is well ahead of Wall Street expectations of $1.06 and a 25% jump from the $0.92 it earned last year.
As one might expect, the second quarter is seasonally strong for the industry, and sales at SCP Pool have been even more robust than projected. Management is now calling for full-year earnings in the $1.70-to-$1.75 range, up from earlier guidance of $1.60.
With 45% of the $2.5 billion domestic wholesale pool supply market, SCP Pool is hands down the dominant player in the space, 10 times the size of the nearest competitor. Given recent consolidation in the industry (SCP Pool has acquired 20 former rivals over the past decade), future growth will have to come internally, but that shouldn't present much of a challenge.
Double-digit same-store sales growth has been the norm the past several years, and a targeted advertising campaign is now reaching key demographics in more than 85 major markets. Furthermore, more than 200,000 new swimming pools are installed each year, and homeowners will need a steady supply of filters, pumps, and chemicals to ensure that their backyard lagoons stay crystal clear.
SCP Pool shares have had a nice run so far this year and hit a 52-week high yesterday, but the company is always susceptible to cool or rainy weather. Anything less than sunny skies can be highly disruptive and dampen earnings far more than Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT) or Target's (NYSE:TGT) weather-blamed slowdowns. Also, impending shareholder dilution looms large, something Rich Smith warns of in 7 Steps to Finding Gems.
Nevertheless, SCP Pool has been remarkably consistent, posting steady increases in both revenues and earnings every year in its 11-year history. The company also has a history of margin expansion, reliable free cash flows, and a rock-solid balance sheet. Last month a new dividend was instituted, something Motley Fool Income Investor subscribers can appreciate.
The market for new swimming pools is largely untapped, and a growing pool (no pun intended) of baby boomers with plenty of disposable income should only add to the total. Each new pool represents years of recurring, non-discretionary revenues, and SCP Pool receives half of this, as well as a growing share of the $5 billion spent annually on high-margin complementary products such as grills, toys, and pool furniture. Statistics like these lead me to believe that SCP Pool's winning streak won't stop at 11.
Fool contributor Nathan Slaughter recently splurged on an above-ground pool, but it was shredded by his dog in a matter of hours. He owns none of the companies mentioned.
