Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Tyson: Upped Guidance, Bad News

By W.D. Crotty – Updated Nov 16, 2016 at 4:54PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

Though the company reported strong earnings, analysts wanted more.

By all accounts, Tyson (NYSE:TSN) scratched out an excellent third quarter. Sales, up 4.8%, overcame a 3.6% decrease in unit volume with a strong 8.8% increase in average price. Earnings per share were up 100% -- something to crow about.

Surprisingly, an increase in guidance for full-year GAAP earnings to $1.38 to $1.48 a share (up from $1.05 to $1.25) probably accounted for the 7% decline in yesterday's stock price. Analysts must have been cackling because they were expecting $1.44 for the fiscal year -- considerably higher than the low end of company guidance.

Tyson is a diversified "protein provider." A 5.5% fall in beef sales was more than offset by a 31.2% increase in pork sales. Chicken sales, riding strong pricing, were up 12.9% for the quarter. While diversification helped keep sales rising, all three business segments saw an increase in operating income -- an indication everything is A-OK. Or is it?

While Tyson is not plagued by the chicken abuse charges being leveled at industry No. 2 Pilgrim's Pride (NYSE:PPC), avian flu in the U.S. has closed some export markets. Mad cow disease has done the same to beef and sent international beef sales down 43.5%. Although no Tyson chickens or steers have tested positive for these diseases, the company has had to "deal with it" -- and the results have been less than disappointing.

Commodity prices are also making life tough. Tyson offset $44 million in grain price increases by hedging. While that is good, hedging cannot guarantee that future results will receive similar benefits.

There is much to like about Tyson other than its diversification. The company is well on its way to reducing its debt-to-capital ratio to 43% this year. What keeps the price-earnings ratio under the market is a 4.9% operating margin. Although that beats the 4.0% at Smithfield Foods (NYSE:SFD) it is far from the plump 17.2% at former Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendation Sanderson Farms (NASDAQ:SAFM).

Tyson is trading at 15 to 16 times the company's upper earnings guidance. There is long-term value here because margins are rising, debt is falling, export markets are possibly ready to reopen, and the company is focused on higher profit product introductions.

Discuss Tyson Foods , The Fun(ky) Art of BBQ, or your favorite protein (meat) stocks with other investors on the Motley Fool discussion boards.

Fool contributor W.D. Crotty does not own any of the stocks mentioned.

None

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Pilgrim's Pride Corporation Stock Quote
Pilgrim's Pride Corporation
PPC
$24.06 (-3.49%) $0.87
Tyson Foods, Inc. Stock Quote
Tyson Foods, Inc.
TSN
$69.94 (-1.51%) $-1.07
Sanderson Farms, Inc. Stock Quote
Sanderson Farms, Inc.
SAFM

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.

Stock Advisor Returns
339%
 
S&P 500 Returns
109%

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 09/24/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.