Months ago, I came across a stock with some unbelievable numbers. Sales looked good. Income had doubled. Return on equity was out of control. And it was a player in the growing personal media player market. Its name? PortalPlayer
Based on what I knew -- which wasn't much -- I gave it a lot of consideration, but did I pull the trigger? First let me say that even thinking about making an investment without weeks of research is alien to me. I come from a value-focused hedge fund. We had all day to analyze stocks and we used it, often burning the midnight oil. Hedge funds have a reputation as the gunslingers of the market, but I assure you mine was anything but. We held just a handful of stocks, and we knew them cold. But staying abreast of them -- and finding new ones -- took a lot of time. That kind of thoroughness is what The Motley Fool is all about. When it comes to burning the midnight oil, David and Tom Gardner -- Motley Fool co-founders and lead analysts of the Motley Fool Stock Advisor newsletter -- could give the hedge-fund crowd a run for their collective money.
No, I didn't buy PortalPlayer. And I'm glad I didn't, considering the company just dropped more than 20% of its value since it announced a dilutive 4.5 million share stock offering that a cursory browse on Yahoo! Finance wouldn't have revealed beforehand. But I'm not really here to criticize PortalPlayer; it could still make for a fine long-term investment (although I'd keep an eye on dilution going forward).
Regardless, risk exists, and with any investment it's important to know what you're betting on. No screen or quick peekaboo would clue you in to the fact that firms as diverse as Coca-Cola
Having the time to do some diligent digging is crucial in avoiding potential blowups.
The "Are you kidding me?" formula
There's more. Years ago, I read a book about theories underlying accounting and financial statements. It spent a lot of time on a common solvency formula: earnings available to pay fixed charges divided by those fixed charges. Via several chapters of buildup, it replaced the simple version with a "corrected" formula that made several tweaks to the numerator and denominator. Was it right? Yes -- it eliminated a lot of flaws in the raw accounting numbers. But that accuracy came at the expense of a formula so complex that individual investors would need days to calculate it.
Lack of time tends to pull investors in one of two ways. The first: making futile grasps in a blizzard of information overload. The second: tunnel vision toward stocks you've already researched. Either one can burn you.
Having time troubles with your investing?
Then the best investment you can make is an investment in your time management. And I've got ideas for you. The first is simple: Develop screens and hone your criteria for investments. With 10,000 stocks and a day job, you absolutely have to develop efficient methods for cutting to the ones you're likely to bite on. Second, spread the load among trusted compatriots. Start an investing club with like-minded, like-ability investor friends.
If you're still pressed for time, consider a free trial to Motley Fool Stock Advisor. The harried will like that two stock recommendations come floating their way every month, while the detail-oriented will appreciate the investment theses, complete with counterpoints, provided behind each selection. To date, David and Tom's picks are beating the market by an average of almost 40 percentage points. Hands-on or hands-off, it's your choice. And you're never far from an investing club of sorts, since Stock Advisor membership comes with access to exclusive discussion boards, where members can share thoughts, insights, and questions without the plague of profane and inane comments typical of boards elsewhere.
Even if you don't sign up for the newsletter (although I do hope you'll at least take a no-obligation, 30-day trial), I suggest you take a few moments to think about how time has affected your investing. If the answer is "negatively," consider taking some sort of action to get a better handle on your future. Investing is a critically important task -- one that shouldn't get neglected as often as it does.
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This article was originally published on Feb. 23, 2005. It has been updated.
James Early does not own any of the stocks discussed in this article. Dell is a Stock Advisor recommendation. Coca-Cola is a Motley Fool Inside Value recommendation. The Motley Fool has adisclosure policy.