Shareholders of Lions Gate Entertainment (NYSE:LGF) are having a fun time this week -- in sharp contrast to the victims locked in a house of death by the maniacal madman named Jigsaw.
Indeed, instead of trying to figure out where the latest deadly mechanical trap lies, Lions Gate investors want to know what Saw II's second weekend holds in store. Because that will tell them how valuable this nascent horror franchise might be. Oh, don't get me wrong, it's already pretty valuable. But who knows, maybe there's more financial potential here than even the filmmakers realize.
According to Boxofficemojo.com, Saw II took in $31.7 million in the domestic theatrical marketplace over the weekend right before Halloween. Sorry, Michael Myers, but it looks like the WB-network generation has found itself a new homicidal killer to admire. Know what the first Saw gorefest netted for its entire run? A little more than $55 million. That's right, in one three-day swath, the sequel took in 57% of the first flick's final gross. Furthermore, as of Wednesday, the take is already north of $41 million.
In addition, Lions Gate says that it moved 4 million DVD units of Saw. I'd imagine that they'll be selling plenty more on the heels of Saw II's success. That's the great thing about a series of branded films; if the next entry kills, then all previous entries get a boost and supply some nice revenues. Jigsaw's new adventure will certainly be a bigger DVD phenomenon than the first.
Lions Gate has a huge challenge with this franchise -- finding a way to retain its intelligence advantage. And the filmmakers are certainly aware of this. The release issued an interesting statement, saying that everyone involved is trying to "identify a new plot that is provocative and compelling enough to live up to the Saw franchise's cutting edge standards." That'll be a tall order, because a horror series can easily slip into campy, goofy behavior.
I don't think Jigsaw will be able to go in such a direction. For better or for worse, Saw's indelible originality has ensnared the filmmakers into an obligation that will be painfully difficult to execute: They need to consistently come up with twist endings that both satisfy and fool a majority of the audience.
Going back to the beginning, this second weekend will tell the tale of how big Saw II will be. Disney (NYSE:DIS), of course, is hoping that its Chicken Little film can give Jigsaw a case of the bird flu. Anything less than a 50% drop will be impressive, since that is the threshold of depreciation that is typically anticipated by box-office watchers for a genre film's second weekend. My gut tells me that Saw II stands a fair chance of breaking the trend.
If Jigsaw's quest to scare people into appreciating life continues to hold the multiplexes hostage, then perhaps the current valuation will hold. No matter what, though, I think Lions Gate Entertainment is an interesting long-term play on the movie business for the more speculative side of one's portfolio.
Slice into these meaty pieces:
- Is This Lion Tame?
- Lions' Lust for Libraries
- Lions Gate: A Roaring Idea?
- You won't encounter any of Jigsaw's deadly mind games in our Lions Gate Entertainment discussion board -- we promise.
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Fool contributor Steven Mallas owns shares of Disney. The Fool has a strict disclosure policy .
