Sometimes it's not so obvious whether a company had a good quarter. Take Deere (NYSE:DE), for example. Yes, its reported earnings per share this quarter were well ahead of the published mean estimate, but they were down on a year-over-year basis, and below the average analyst's estimate three months ago.
This diversified machinery maker has seen better quarters. Total sales were down about 1%, as positive sales growth in the commercial & consumer and construction & forestry segments almost offset declines in the agricultural business. Deere isn't alone here. Although construction machinery rival Caterpillar (NYSE:CAT) had positive top-line growth in the third quarter, farm machinery competitor AGCO (NYSE:AG) was basically flat on the revenue line, and CNH Global (NYSE:CNH) fell slightly.
Should Deere management's guidance prove accurate, next year looks challenging for the farm business as well. Demand doesn't seem too sharp in either North or South America (major markets for both Deere and AGCO). Europe looks a little better comparatively, which could be good news for CNH.
Here's the bigger question for investors: Is Deere, a cyclical company, reaching its latest peak? It seems that Deere will have positive earnings growth for the next fiscal year, but that growth will likely be in the single-digit range, suggesting that earnings momentum is starting to ebb.
In Deere's favor, the company does produce a better return on capital than its industry in general. What's more, the stock has had a good run over the past 20 years, despite a few nasty drops along the way. These shares aren't priced inappropriately when compared to past cyclical tops. But after seeing the stock price tumble in past downswings, I'm not sure the potential rewards adequately outweigh the risks.
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Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).
