Please ensure Javascript is enabled for purposes of website accessibility

Is It Safe for Patterson?

By Stephen D. Simpson, Simpson, – Updated Nov 16, 2016 at 1:08PM

You’re reading a free article with opinions that may differ from The Motley Fool’s Premium Investing Services. Become a Motley Fool member today to get instant access to our top analyst recommendations, in-depth research, investing resources, and more. Learn More

A tougher market and high valuation don't make this an especially compelling investment idea.

Like Laurence Olivier's character in Marathon Man, investors in dental, veterinary, and rehab supplier Patterson (NASDAQ:PDCO) may well be wondering, "Is it safe?" After all, this has been a tough year, and management guidance doesn't suggest that an immediate turnaround is in the offing.

Taking some of the sting out of today's report is that the company preannounced bad results for this second quarter and took the pounding in the stock price last week. Sales were up 11% as reported and up about 7% without acquisitions as sluggish performance in the dental equipment business hurt results. Margins also softened a bit, and the company realized net income growth of just 5%.

Dental equipment has been the problem child here before, and while that business can be volatile on a quarter-to-quarter basis, it does seem as though the company is suffering for focusing its attentions on high-technology equipment to the detriment of more basic items like chairs and lights. Not helping matters, Danaher (NYSE:DHR) has seen some softness in parts of the dental business, and rival distributor Henry Schein (NASDAQ:HSIC) is hard at work building a more global platform.

Now, I do think there is still ample opportunity to grow within the dental distribution market, to say nothing of the veterinary distribution business. But I also think that growth estimates for this company have gotten a bit inflated. That could mean more hard times for the stock should the company underperform, causing investors to adjust their valuation multiples accordingly. What's more, this marks three consecutive sizable disappointments from this company, so I'd be a bit more suspicious about how well the analysts really have this business pegged.

Looking at a cash flow-based valuation, I have no interest in this stock. After all, do you want to pay more than 25 times earnings for a company that may be hard-pressed to achieve mid-teens growth? Though the same could be said for Dentsply (NASDAQ:XRAY) and Sybron (NYSE:SYD) to some extent, at least those two businesses don't have a recent track record of disappointment.

For more toothy Takes:

Fool contributor Stephen Simpson has no financial interest in any stocks mentioned (that means he's neither long nor short the shares).

None

Invest Smarter with The Motley Fool

Join Over 1 Million Premium Members Receiving…

  • New Stock Picks Each Month
  • Detailed Analysis of Companies
  • Model Portfolios
  • Live Streaming During Market Hours
  • And Much More
Get Started Now

Stocks Mentioned

Henry Schein, Inc. Stock Quote
Henry Schein, Inc.
HSIC
$67.34 (-0.97%) $0.66
Danaher Corporation Stock Quote
Danaher Corporation
DHR
$265.27 (-0.43%) $-1.16
DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc. Stock Quote
DENTSPLY SIRONA Inc.
XRAY
$29.98 (1.46%) $0.43
Patterson Companies, Inc. Stock Quote
Patterson Companies, Inc.
PDCO
$25.28 (-0.86%) $0.22

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

Related Articles

Motley Fool Returns

Motley Fool Stock Advisor

Market-beating stocks from our award-winning analyst team.

Stock Advisor Returns
339%
 
S&P 500 Returns
109%

Calculated by average return of all stock recommendations since inception of the Stock Advisor service in February of 2002. Returns as of 09/24/2022.

Discounted offers are only available to new members. Stock Advisor list price is $199 per year.

Premium Investing Services

Invest better with The Motley Fool. Get stock recommendations, portfolio guidance, and more from The Motley Fool's premium services.