The ebb and flow of a restaurant stock is often tied closely to its same-store sales numbers. As the owner, operator, and franchisor of the Hardee's, Carl's Jr., and La Salsa brands, CKE Restaurants (NYSE:CKR) is bound to that fate. An up-and-down year for CKE's same-store sales created similar movement in its stock price. However, a strong finish to the fiscal year should leave shareholders happy.
Comparing sales from prior periods is a quick, useful way to check up on a brand's health. But Wall Street can often react to this news in a knee-jerk fashion. Comps alone never tell the whole story; we'll need to dig a little deeper into CKE to get the real details.
In Q3, same-store sales were dismal, particularly for Hardee's. Management blamed the significant drop on Katrina and its resulting higher gas prices. Over and over, I've cringed at this excuse, but for CKE it seems justified. There are numerous Hardee's locations in the hurricane-ravaged regions of the Southeast, while Carl's Jr. and La Salsa have a larger presence on the West Coast. This certainly could explain the larger impact in Hardee's numbers. A nice recovery in Q4 for all three segments tells me that management was not simply covering for incompetence elsewhere.
Investors with a myopic view of the situation started running for the door last summer, giving CKE an ideal opportunity to use some of its cash. It spent $4 million buying back shares at an average price of $13.45. With the stock now trading 30% higher, this looks like an excellent use of capital.
Unfortunately, with a heavy burden of long-term debt on the company's shoulders, CKE couldn't take full advantage of those lower share prices. But this debt has been steadily decreasing, and the interest coverage ratio is now rising. This trend should continue to enhance Hardee's turnaround and La Salsa's growth potential.
The market seems to have misjudged CKE one way or another, given the stock's volatility in recent months. To the extent that recent price movements may reflect the company's genuinely improving prospects, CKE Restaurants might be a perfect example of Warren Buffett's advice to "be greedy when others are fearful."
Fool contributor John Bluis does not own any shares of CKE Restaurants. The Fool is investors writing for investors.
