During its four and a half years on the public markets, Jos. A. Bank (NASDAQ:JOSB) has racked up an enviable 16-1-1 record in the earnings game, beating analysts 16 times, tying them once, and missing once as well. But that one miss -- it was a whopper, and it's only two quarters old as of this writing. So has Joe's story changed, or can it return to its consistently winning ways of years past? We'll get our next clue when Joe reports its Q3 2006 numbers on Thursday.

What analysts say:

  • Buy, sell, or waffle? Six analysts know Joe. One gives the stock a buy rating, while the others all say hold.
  • Revenues. They expect Joe to report a 13% rise in revenue tomorrow, targeting $119.5 million in sales.
  • Earnings. Profits are predicted to grow 11.5% to $0.29 per share.

What management says:
Late last month, Joe released its sales numbers for -- this was a new term for me -- the "fiscal month" of November, which ended on the 25th. Compared to fiscal November of last year, the firm advised that total sales grew 20.8%, with same-store sales contributing 9.6% of the growth, and the high margin non-bricks-and-mortar ("NBAM") side of the business (i.e., catalog and Internet) growing 23.6%. Although the firm broke with industry practice by not also providing its quarterly sales numbers in this announcement, don't read too much into that -- this is standard operating procedure for the company, which provides a pre-earnings update on the month before the earnings news, and the year to date only.

What management does:
After its first-ever earnings miss in Q1, Joe's margins naturally took a bit of a hit. But last quarter, they seem to have resumed their upwards trend. What we'll be looking for tomorrow, therefore, is proof that the firm's sales strength was accompanied by improving profitability, and not fueled by price-slashing.

Margins %

4/05

7/05

10/05

1/06

4/06

7/06

Gross

60.7

61.2

61.4

61.9

61.6

61.7

Op.

11.4

11.7

11.8

13.3

12.5

12.6

Net

6.7

6.9

6.8

7.6

7.1

7.2
All data courtesy of Capital IQ, a division of Standard & Poor's. Data reflects trailing-12-month performance for the quarters ended in the named months.

One Fool says:
Returning to the pre-earnings sales report, over the first 10 months of this fiscal year, Joe says total sales grew 17.5%, same store sales 6.1%, and NBAM sales 21.9%. In other words, November showed strengthening sales in comparison to the rest of the year, suggesting that things are getting better rather than worse. So don't be surprised if Wall Street is, well, surprised to learn on Thursday that its estimates were too conservative. The great strength in the high-margin NBAM business in particular suggests to me that Joe is well-positioned to return higher profits than the Street is expecting.

Competitors:

  • Sears Holdings (NASDAQ:SHLD)
  • Phillips-Van Heusen (NYSE:PVH)
  • Men's Wearhouse (NYSE:MW)
  • Nordstrom (NYSE:JWN)
  • Federated (NYSE:FD)

Want to get to know Joe a little better? Here's a few links that can help:

Seventy-four Motley Fool CAPS players pick Joe to outperform the market. Five say it will underperform. Where do you stand? Join more than 14,000 fellow investors in the Fool's new stock-rating service and let your voice be heard .

Fool contributor Rich Smith does not own shares of any company named above.