The Rollins era is now over at Dell. Though the change wasn't a surprise for fellow Fool Rick Munarriz, investors seemed to be at least somewhat pleasantly surprised by the change. It's questionable whether having Michael Dell take over the reins again is the answer to the company's problems, but the change sure has CAPS players talking about the one-star stock.
Expectations are everything in investing, and when things don't go the way investors had hoped, reactions can get ugly. Of course, not all surprises are bad, and when unexpected good events happen, investors like to party. Sometimes, it's a sensible "have a few beers and play some pool" kind of party -- you know, the stock goes up a few points, but nobody drinks enough to get a really bad hangover the next day. Other times, though, a nice surprise comes along that leads to one of those parties where the stock skyrockets, people put lampshades on their heads, and your goldfish ends up in the bathtub. After parties like that, people tend to rethink what they did the night before.
So I've turned to The Motley Fool's CAPS community, where investors of all walks of life can weigh in with their thoughts on nearly 3,700 stocks and come up with a handful of unloved stocks that have been partying over the past month. The question, though, is whether these stocks are better than anybody thought, or whether they are just getting their one day in the sun.
Here are this week's scorching seven, as identified by your fellow Fools on CAPS. Our community of investors gave each of the companies below a one-star rating (the lowest) just 30 days ago.
|
Stock |
30-Day Return |
One-Year Return |
|---|---|---|
|
Phoenix Technologies |
47.1% |
(2.1%) |
|
Trina Solar |
46.4% |
N/A |
|
Thermage |
39.5% |
N/A |
|
Navistar |
36.5% |
67.3% |
|
RadioShack |
34.3% |
3.4% |
|
Old Dominion Freight Line |
34% |
13.8% |
|
Witness Systems |
29.8% |
(1.6%) |
So who's been partying too hard? According to CAPS players, pretty much everybody. Despite their gains, Phoenix Technologies, Trina Solar, Thermage, Navistar, and RadioShack still have a one-star rating in CAPS. As for Old Dominion and Witness Systems, CAPS players have bumped them from one star to three.
Not a less-than-truckload gain
Though six of Old Dominion's 25 total CAPS ratings are underperforms, the stock has seen strong support from CAPS All Stars, among whom it's 5-0 -- including recent endorsements from BBWhite and atrin, both of whom are ranked in the top 1% of all CAPS players. Old Dominion caught a quick 7% gain early in the year, when Bear Stearns upgraded the stock to "peer perform" from "underperform." The upgrade was more of a nod to the expectation that Old Dominion could outperform other truckers, rather than a suggestion that the problems facing the trucking industry as a whole are going away.
Yesterday, Old Dominion tacked on another 16% when it released fourth-quarter earnings. The company did have shipment tonnage that exceeded expectations, but a lower-than-expected tax rate and some returns from insurance-claims reserves were also a big help in pushing fourth-quarter EPS 12% over the top end of guidance. For the full year, revenue was up 21%, and net income rose 36%.
Too much excitement? Though 34% is a big gain for 30 days, the stock is still recovering from a 38% slide that it experienced between early summer and the end of 2006. Even after today's jump, the shares trade at a hair less than one times sales and just a little more than 16 times trailing earnings. Check out Old Dominion on CAPS, and chime in on whether you think this stock has more room to run.
On the flip side, CAPS participants seemed less than impressed with the gains in recent IPO stocks Trina Solar and Thermage. Both stocks are still stuck with one-star ratings, particularly Trina, which has a convincing 100 underperforms to 50 outperforms. CAPS All-Star Jeffreyw says that Trina is "losing to currency exchange as well as lacking demand in a crowded market. Future solar has to be affordable, innovative, and practical! Solar power has a long way to go before everyone will be using it!"
CAPS is absolutely free and gives Fools everywhere the chance to get their thoughts heard on thousands of stocks. Plus, CAPS is a ratings system that benefits from having a wealth of different views -- so click on over and start rating today.
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Fool contributor Matt Koppenheffer didn't see these particular moves coming, but he's rarely surprised at Mr. Market's general tomfoolery. He owns shares of Dell, but has no position in any other company mentioned. The Fool's disclosure policy is always expected.
