Thursday morning, warehouse retailer Costco
What analysts say:
- Buy, sell, or waffle? Twenty-five analysts follow Costco today. Six are telling us to buy; three want us to sell; and the other 16 prefer holding for now.
- Revenues. $15.6 billion would satisfy the average analyst, representing a 10.9% boost over last year's results.
- Earnings. The consensus forecast expects roughly $0.66 per share, up from $0.62 a year ago. Management expects to land in the $0.62 to $0.66 range, before a $0.15-per-share expense to protect employees from tax expenses on their stock options.
What management says:
CEO Jim Sinegal recently joined the Business for a Fair Minimum Wage organization, which lobbies for higher minimum wages. Yeah, the name is a bit of a giveaway. His company wouldn't be directly affected by such a move, because its lowest-paid employees now make about $11 an hour, Sinegal told the Washington Post.
"In my view, some of these industries that pay minimum wage are constantly turning their people," he elaborated. "They spend more on turnover than they would in paying the additional wages."
What management does:
Steady as she goes, captain. At least, that's the story if you're just looking at the margin rundown. There's a slight downward trend, but it's hard to get too worked up over ten or twenty basis points, even for a low-margin retailer like Costco.
But the divergent growth trends in revenues and income raise a warning flag for me. If the company meets expectations, which trend toward the upper range of its own guidance, the earnings growth slide should happily reverse itself.
8/2005 |
11/2005 |
2/2006 |
5/2006 |
9/2006 |
11/2006 |
|
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Gross |
12.5% |
12.5% |
12.4% |
12.4% |
12.3% |
12.3% |
Operating |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
3.0% |
2.9% |
2.9% |
Net |
2.0% |
2.0% |
1.9% |
1.9% |
1.8% |
1.8% |
FCF/Revenue |
1.5% |
1.5% |
1.6% |
1.1% |
1.0% |
1.2% |
YOY Growth |
8/2005 |
11/2005 |
2/2006 |
5/2006 |
9/2006 |
11/2006 |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Revenue |
10.1% |
10.5% |
10.8% |
10.9% |
13.6% |
13.0% |
Earnings |
20.5% |
18.6% |
8.3% |
9.7% |
3.8% |
3.5% |
What CAPS says:
In our Motley Fool CAPS investor universe, Costco is a five-star stock, based on the insights of more than 840 players like you and me. CAPS also tells me that if you like Costco, you might also want to consider Toyota
One Fool says:
In many ways, Costco is the anti-Wal-Mart
Costco Wholesale is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor pick; Wal-Mart is an Inside Value recommendation; and Johnson & Johnson is an Income Investor selection. Take all three newsletters for a free 30-day spin around your portfolio.
Fool contributor Anders Bylund holds no position in any of the companies discussed here, but his wife drives a Toyota. You can check out Anders' holdings if you like, and Foolish disclosure is great at any price.