The Motley Fool's CAPS investing service is one of the newest additions to the investing community at Fool.com, and it's another great way for investors to work together to beat the market. One of the features in CAPS allows users to set up a blog to talk about their picks, investing strategy, market view, or what they just had for lunch (if they so desire).
I've scoured through some of the most recent blog posts in the CAPS universe to bring you some of the great content CAPS players are putting out. Each week, as I read through the blogs, it becomes harder and harder to pick only a few posts. So while I've tried to get as much good stuff as possible in here, be sure to head over to CAPS yourself and check out the other great blog content!
A Payless advantage?
Our first stop is at the blog of MaverickAtWork, a CAPS All-Star who's been pretty prolific in her blog. She kicks us off with some thoughts on Payless Shoesource (NYSE:PSS).
I came across this blog this morning which offered some insight into Payless Shoes I never knew (or thought much about) before.
It seems Payless offers more designer type shoes for women with a larger size shoe than most anyone else. It pulls in the full spectrum of sizes, thus appealing to the larger (>10) and the smaller sized feet (<5) out there.
And the company seems to be doing an increasingly great job with this. Interesting, me thinks, and the Foolish mind begins to wander about Payless pleasing this particular market segment and propels me to want to look at their numbers more closely.
Oh, and then there was this snippet in the post (shhh, keep it on the "DL" ;-) ):
"Our business director let me in on a little secret as well from a conversation he had with a fashion editor. He did so as if he was telling some sort of CIA secret. He looked around, pulled me in and whispered: 'there is very little difference in quality between Payless and the major designers, some of the products might actually be made in the same factory.'"
If interested in a quick peek, you can read up on some Payless numbers from Ryan Fuhrmann, CFA, a la "Fool by Numbers" here.
I confess I haven't been to a Payless Shoes store in a long time. Though I have to admit that I occasionally get a great rush when someone asks me if I'm wearing Michael Kors, and my shoes are from Target.
Granted now, they are not all from Target -- I shop everywhere, darling. There are no limits as to where this lover of a good shoe will hunt!
For more thoughts from MaverickAtWork, you can read her blog here.
Amgen earnings
In reaction to Amgen's (NASDAQ:AMGN) earnings release on Monday, skypicks put together some valuation thoughts on the biotech.
With Amgen trading around $60, an opportunity exists for generating excellent returns on a well known name. I use a simplified discounted cash flow (DCF) method to come up with my price targets to buy, sell, and hold. Amgen is a buy at $60, a sell at $105, and potentially could reach $130.
With such a wide range of prices there are different assumptions. At $60 the market is assuming that the Aranesp drug will not grow from these levels and that the pipeline is a bust. Growth would slow dramatically and earnings would be cut nearly in half. I get close to the $60 target by applying a 20% operating margin to future revenue. By comparison the current operating margin is almost 40%.
If we assume that Amgen continues to perform at the current level of growth and earnings (15% growth and 40% margins) the DCF model gives a price of $100-$110 ... A $130 price target assumes that Amgen is successful with its new bone density drug which recently met the primary and secondary endpoints in a phase three trial. That would create another billion dollar drug for the company.
I should disclose that I am long Amgen and used the recent pullback to add to my position, my average price is 59. Comments are welcome!
To share your comments with skypicks or keep track of what he has to say, you can check out his blog here.
Easiest five grand in world history
And to finish off with some fun (as always!) I bring you TMFElCapitan's blog, where he reminds fellow Fools of the ongoing stock video contest.
Hola Foolitos,
I'm going to be brief. You can win five thousand smackeritos just by recording one 27-second video.
There are only about five submissions up there as we speak. That's beyond anemic. That worships anemic as its master!
Let me repeat myself. You can pocket five thousand dollars just by recording 27 seconds of videotape that is educatin', amusin' and enrichin'.
Just go to this site:
http://votigo.com/motleyfoolcaps/
Log in for free and post your video. You are not up against the ones that are produced by The Motley Fool.
Checking out the website, I see that there are a few more than five videos, but there are still extremely good odds for anyone who enters a video now. So far, we've got some great entries for stocks like Oakley (NYSE:OO), Loopnet (NASDAQ:LOOP), and Buffalo Wild Wings (NASDAQ:BWLD). To see what else TMFElCapitan has to offer, stop by his blog here.
Now it's your turn -- get off the sidelines, join CAPS, and start up your own CAPS blog to share your own knowledge and insights with the rest of the CAPS universe.
LoopNet is a Motley Fool Rule Breakers pick. Buffalo Wild Wings is a Hidden Gems recommendation.
Fool contributor Matt Koppenheffer shares some thoughts of his own on his CAPS blog. He does not own shares of any of the companies mentioned. The Fool's disclosure policy does not have its own CAPS blog, but if it did, it would blow your mind.
