You heard me, the bears got it right. Know why? Because they always do.
Why? Because bears are what ... schmart?
If they weren't, could they even say things like "short-term rally in a long-term secular bear market"? Not likely. Which is why, with the possible exception of Larry Kudlow, I can barely watch CNBC anymore.
Really. For all the lip service paid to the shameless cheerleaders on Wall Street, Kudlow may be the only talking head with the guts (and brains) to stand up for this market. If you've seen Larry at work, you know what I mean.
To hear it from the rest of these chumps, the last 50 years have been little more than ... you guessed it ... a short-term rally in a long-term secular bear market. It's a wonder working stiffs like us even bother.
Bears see things others can't
Bears look at 10-year charts of Qualcomm and Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) and shudder. Dopes like us see stocks that are up 1,412% and 2,591%, respectively, creating billions in wealth for investors like you and me.
Private equity, arguably the smartest money on Earth, is on a buying spree -- most recently offering up $25 billion for wireless carrier Alltel (NYSE:AT). Meanwhile, consumer giants from Pepsico (NYSE:PEP) to McDonald's (NYSE:MCD) have roared back, driving the S&P 500 to all-time highs. What do the bears see? More "bear traps."
Now, let's be clear: I can't promise you'll make money in stocks over the next six months, much less predict what the tech-heavy Nasdaq or the financials will do next week. Nobody can. But I do know that stocks as a group always head higher in the long term. Now, tell me again why the bears are so smart?
And call me a liar, too!
Because the bears don't have it right. They never do. That's why I was drawn to David and Tom Gardner when I had the good fortune of helping them launch their Motley Fool Stock Advisor. In March 2002, they were among the only gurus in the biz who were still bullish on America.
That's not to say they were unapologetic bulls -- though I sure would be a richer man if I'd taken their advice and bought Marvel Entertainment (NYSE:MVL) or Pixar, now part of Disney (NYSE:DIS). In fact, David and Tom know full well that stocks can go down.
They just don't do bear markets. And good thing, too. Since they launched Stock Advisor more than five years ago, their subscribers have earned on average 73.8% per pick -- and seven out of 10 are in the money. That's a torrid pace to keep up, but after five years, I think we may be past the lucky streak phase.
Go ahead, call me a perma-bull
Granted, I bought stocks all the way through the bear market. Of course, I was fortunate to buy more near the bottom. And that's the one lesson we can learn from the perma-bears: Given the choice, we should always gorge at lower prices, not higher.
Even better, if we can consistently buy rock-solid businesses and keep her steady as she goes, we can't miss. If that makes me naive and a chump, so be it. Because here's my promise to all you perma-bears out there: If at any time in the next 20 years all three major indices should ever hit all-time lows, I'll admit I was wrong.
Meanwhile, our job is to find stocks that will outperform and avoid the bombs. You might just consider a 30-day free trial to Stock Advisor. According to independent watchdog Hulbert Interactive, David and Tom's Stock Advisor recommendations are up 23.1% on an annualized basis, compared with just 7.8% for the broad market.
Of course, if you accept a free trial, you can check out all of David and Tom's picks and read all the newsletter issues. Don't like what you see? You won't pay a cent. But there is one catch: No bears allowed! To start your free Stock Advisor trial and see all the recommendations, click here now.
This article was first published Feb. 8, 2007. It has been updated.
Paul Elliott doesn't own any stocks mentioned. Marvel and Disney are Motley Fool Stock Advisor recommendations. You can view the entire scorecard instantly with your free trial. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.
