Judging by the stock price, I couldn't have been more wrong about Crocs
Fortunately, rating a company an underperform in CAPS is far less painful than a short position in real life. But the stock's performance and my abysmal CAPS results have led me to two possible conclusions:
- I'm dead wrong about the company's prospects;
- or, I massively underestimated how popular Crocs could become in the short term and the company's ability to sell them to so many retailers and restaurants.
As you might guess, I'm not convinced Crocs is for real. I still find that executives and other insiders selling nearly all of their shares is the ultimate sign that management doesn't believe this business has a long-term future. I think my biggest mistake was to underestimate the number of locations that the company could find for its products. Mall kiosks and TJX's
Ultimately, I still think competition will take its toll and that the shoes' popularity will fade. Some current competitive offerings include Payless ShoeSource
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