Since I don't see anybody else waiting around to pat me on the back, I guess I'll just take care of it myself. OK, so maybe correctly predicting that Aeropostale (NYSE:ARO) would not continue its torrid rise unabated doesn't put me in quite the same league as Nostradamus. After all, the stock price soared about 15% in just three months, so sensing that likely wouldn't continue hardly qualifies me as a market genius, but I'll take whatever I can get.

Do I think Aeropostale is going to be the next Wet Seal (NASDAQ:WTSLA), which is still fighting to resurface, or bebe (NASDAQ:BEBE), which continues to struggle to regain its form? I don't envision Aeropostale struggling quite to that extent, but I do see it taking investors for an up-and-down ride for a while.

Last week, Aeropostale reported sales figures for May that seem to indicate its inflated stock price is completely justified. Sales soared 19.3% to $88.1 million and comps increased by 1.9%. Frankly, I don't care about the sales growth. The number that matters to me is the comps growth, which compares sales at stores that were open in both time periods, and 1.9% growth doesn't get me shopping for Aeropostale stock. That's especially true when, in May of 2006, comps were down 1.1%, giving the company an easy comparison. Add to that the fact that the company reported comps that were lower by 14% last month, factor in the recent run-up in its stock price, and I think you'll start to see why investors finally caught on and sold the stock after the news.

I don't mean to sound so negative about Aeropostale. In fact, I think the stock will end up doing quite well over the long term. I just wouldn't touch it at its recent prices. We all know it's had strong earnings and sales growth lately, but that's just it; all that wonderful news is already fully accounted for in its stock price. Unless it easily tops estimates in its next earnings release, I don't see what would prompt investors to continue to pump up the stock price. And, thus far, they're not. Since closing the session at a high of just less than $47.50 on May 21, the stock has slipped almost 7.5%. While that still doesn't make it a bargain (it could be had for $40 at the beginning of May), it is a sign that investors are at least acting rationally.

I would watch this stock closely and hope investors overreact and push its share price too low. While I don't expect that to happen soon, it may drop a bit further, making it a more sensible purchase. Now, if only I could predict the bottom for Aeropostale, perhaps I would actually earn that pat on the back.

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Fool contributor Mike Cianciolo welcomes feedback and doesn't own any of the companies in this article. The Fool has a disclosure policy.