Cablevision's Complicated Cable Case

It seems that the tremendous number of moving parts at Cablevision (NYSE:CVC) is beginning to confuse folks. That's probably not true of Fools, who tend to be brighter and more alert than your average bear, but the company's  quarterly earnings release from Wednesday has only strengthened my feelings about this corporate complexity.

Let's review the bidding on Cablevision's near-term history, starting on Wednesday. The company released its June quarter results that day, including income of $317.4 million, or $1.08 a share, vs. $14.6 million, or a nickel a share last year. But a better way to look at the results is to focus on operating income, which backs out the effects of special items, including the lucrative asset sales in the quarter. That line increased 30% year over year to $208.4 million, from $159.7 million.

At the same time, management, led by CEO James Dolan, reduced some of its guidance for the year. For instance, revenues are now expected to grow by about 11% in 2007, rather than the previously anticipated mid-teens percentage. And growth in the number of customers generating revenues is projected to come in between 825,000 and 900,000 for the year -- down from the prior 850,000-950,000 estimate.

You also probably know that the Dolan family is somewhere in the process -- they wouldn't say precisely where during their conference call -- of buying the shares in Cablevision they don't already own for $36.26 a share. That's higher than the amounts offered late last year and early in 2007, but lower than some observers think is justified. The buyout still must pass the muster of an as-yet-unscheduled shareholder vote.

All this is occurring against a backdrop of concern about increasing competition from telephone operator Verizon's (NYSE:VZ) FiOS television and high-speed Internet package. According to Cablevision management, Verizon's incursions into its own base haven't been greater than expected.

So it seems there could be something of a slowing of growth at Cablevision. But, I have two questions here for astute, cable-investing Fools: Would it have been realistic to expect the phenomenal growth at Cablevision -- and at industry leaders Comcast (NYSE:CMCSA) and Time Warner Cable (NYSE:TWC) -- to remain linear? And, at the risk of excessive cynicism, if you needed to pass a shareholder vote for a questionable buyout price, would you be raising expectations?

Whatever your answers on my two-question quiz, I continue to think it'd be most unwise for Fools to jump into the Cablevision fray at this point.

To tune into related Foolishness:

• A Beginner's Guide to Growth Stocks
• Cablevision's Wild, Wacky Week
• Dolan Redux at Cablevision

Cablevision may offer many channels, but it only holds one star (out of five) in Motley Fool CAPS, our free interactive stock database. Chime in with your thoughts or flip through other companies in CAPS.

Fool contributor David Lee Smith owns nary a share of any of the companies mentioned. He does welcome your comments or questions. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.