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Dueling Fools: Starbucks Bear Rebuttal

By Lawrence A. Rothman, CFA – Updated Nov 14, 2016 at 11:22PM

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There are too many unfavorable ingredients in this bitter brew.

Tim's bull case for Starbucks (NASDAQ:SBUX) rests on a lack of sufficient competitors, expansion opportunities internationally, and a stock that, although not cheap, is cheaper than it has been in the past.

He hasn't changed my mind -- how about yours? While it's true that Starbucks is as much about atmosphere as it is about coffee, why else but atmosphere would someone pay the exorbitant prices? Panera Bread (NASDAQ:PNRA), with more than $800 million in annual sales, is a stronger competitor that Tim neglected to mention. It, too, offers Wi-Fi, a comfortable place to settle in, and delicious offerings at its cafes. At McDonald's (NYSE:MCD), I can even get a better-tasting cup of coffee -- as the blind taste tests show -- all for much less than the privilege of sitting at Starbucks. I can even bring my kids and have them romp around for hours in the play gym while I use my laptop.

The world may not stop buying a $4 cuppa joe all of a sudden. But that pricey brew does limit the markets Starbucks can enter. It already has a ton of stores in all 50 states plus Washington, D.C. There are 71 stores in D.C. alone, and 479 more in New York City.

Vienna may be the coffee capital of the world, but that doesn't mean the citizens will fork over their hard-earned euros on overpriced coffee. The culture is very different, and what works here in the U.S. doesn't necessarily translate. The same applies to other countries as well. Europeans like familiarity, not just the latest trends.

As for valuation, spending 33 times trailing earnings is expensive, no matter which way the steam blows -- especially considering its recent growth has slowed. "Lower than in the past" does not necessarily equal "bargain."

In short, with Starbucks' slowing growth, an uncertain reception internationally, and a rich valuation all brewed together, I'll be taking my order elsewhere.

Wait! You're not done with this duel. Go back and read the other arguments, and then vote for a winner.

Starbucks is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection. See what other market-beating recommendations Tom and David Gardner are brewing up by taking Stock Advisor for a free, 30-day trial run.

Fool contributor Larry Rothman is happy to receive feedback, and he promises to read it when he's not being wrestled by his three children. Feel free to email him at [email protected]. He doesn't have any positions in the companies mentioned. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

Starbucks Corporation Stock Quote
Starbucks Corporation
SBUX
$84.81 (0.76%) $0.64
McDonald's Corporation Stock Quote
McDonald's Corporation
MCD
$243.76 (-0.89%) $-2.19
Panera Bread Company Stock Quote
Panera Bread Company
PNRA

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