A One-in-a-Hundred Investor

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new President. In the same vein, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we dub them "All-Stars" -- have scored 100 points on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. Since research shows that the best stocks to buy and sell have gotten top ratings, might we also assume that there's a similar correlation when the best players rate the best stocks?

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is LurkyLurky, who sports a near-perfect 99.96 player rating. A player since September 2006, LurkyLurky currently has 183 active picks on CAPS, out of more than 620 stock picks made. Achieving 81% accuracy, LurkyLurky has also attracted 29 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of LurkyLurky's most recent stock selections, and their accompanying ratings:

Source: Motley Fool CAPS.
*Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a player is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.

Gambling on growth
If I were a betting man -- and I am -- I'd wager that Chinese online entertainment company GigaMedia is set to take off. Shares in the gaming house have fallen over the past few months, following the company's announcement that second-quarter sales would merely match first-quarter results because of a seasonal slowdown. GigaMedia currently trades one-third lower than it did just in May; it was down nearly 50% at one point. With earnings set for mid-August, even matching revenue estimates means that the company will post a 36% growth rate over last year.

Gross margin has remained consistently high for the Motley Fool Global Gains recommendation, and it has reported increasing returns on capital. Trading at just less than 12 times next year's earnings, it only sports a slight premium to others in the industry, with better long-term growth prospects than most.

CAPS member jazzysav believes that the market's not offering an appropriate valuation for GigaMedia's portfolio of games: "Under-followed and under-priced company leading a broad portfolio of products that are becoming more and more relevant."

Stocking up on losses
Internet reseller Overstock.com has been reaping the rewards of the faltering economy, seeing revenue rise 27% in the latest quarter as margins improve. While that may have led to investors to overbuy Overstock, the shares' subsequent freefall may also have been overdone. Shares are back to where they were in late April -- before the company added a half-million customers (albeit at higher costs).

Yet Overstock isn't profitable, has never been profitable, and by some analysts' calculations, might never be profitable. With expenses soaring, direct revenue declining, and enough discount competitors to shake a stick at, investors might just want to stick a fork in Overstock instead.

That's what CAPS member manlac9 apparently wants to do, when he notes there's little in the way of innovation at Overstock to make it the least bit interesting: "Losing money, not even an interesting business plan to speak of, the online marketplace is saturated and Overstock isn't adding anything to the market."

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest players in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but we haven't heard yet from you. As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?