A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office sets the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. Since research shows that the best stocks to buy and sell have gotten top ratings, might we also assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there is a correlation?

One of our highest-rated CAPS members is fransgeraedts, who sports a near-perfect 99.98 member rating. A member since September 2007, fransgeraedts currently has 195 active picks on CAPS out of more than 1,300 stock picks made. Achieving 80% accuracy, fransgeraedts has also attracted 44 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

*Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a player is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call. Source: Motley Fool CAPS.

Does something smell here?
Potash producer Mosaic has taken it on the chin these past few days; indeed, it seems the entire commodities sector has had its bubble burst. With the price of oil easing up (although it’s still near $120 a barrel), could it be that investors are taking profits on a company -- and a segment of the economy -- that has exploded over the past few years? More important for investors, does Mosaic represent a good buy at these prices? After all, it's bound to come back again, since demand has not slackened. Or is the party over for commodities?

CAPS member babyjocko predicted last month that with the price appreciation Mosaic has enjoyed, it was bound to take a fall: “Has run up too high while the braoder market declined and will encounter a correction.”

On the other hand, 1980xls noted that while it may indeed be a bubble situation, that doesn't mean people will need fertilizer for their crops any less:

Commodities may be in a bubble, but, people will not be eating any less unlike demand destruction in oil. They are not making more real estate, and world population growth requires maximum yeild from every available acre. This despite any elimination of any ethanol mandates.

E=MC downer?
Considering that EMC has shown its proficiency in various virtual inputs -- storage, servers, and security -- its foray into cloud computing ought to be a logical next step. To say that it has its head in the clouds, though -- by booting VMware's founder in favor of a Microsoft alum -- would be going too far. Its offspring will need someone perhaps more experienced to face the tough competition this next stage of technology will present. This might also be what is fueling the rumors of a possible buyout of EMC.

That in itself is leading to competing visions among investors. CAPS member wickedfool2k sees the rumors as all that has been keeping EMC propped up:

With rumors of acquisition propping up the stock price, it will surely fall to 14 when they are found untrue. [VMware] will also affect it negatively.

Conversely, the options market has gman444 seeing a chance to get in on an opportunity. Something may be brewing, though, as shares are up more than 20% over the past two weeks:

Big institutional call buying suggests chance for a big jump up---perhaps the sale or spin-off of [VMware] is brewing, or EMC itself will be acquired. Either way, I want to be long this stock come Monday (8/4/08).

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest players in the CAPS investor-intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. And since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?