A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new president. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. Since data show that the best stocks to buy and sell have gotten top ratings, might we also assume that when the best players rate the best stocks, there is a correlation?

One of our highest rated CAPS members is GraemesPSP, who sports a near-perfect 99.97 member rating. A member since November 2007, GraemesPSP currently has 181 active picks on CAPS out of more than 750 stock picks made. Achieving 78% accuracy, GraemesPSP has also attracted 16 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections and how they were rated.

Source: Motley Fool CAPS; +Price when call was made. Current score is how many points a player is beating (lagging) the S&P 500 index from the time of the call as of September 9th.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about these stocks and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Lehman Brothers
Already in a weakened state and the pick by many to have been the next to fail after Bear Stearns earlier this year, Lehman Brothers looked like it had achieved salvation when Korea Development Bank appeared as if it was going to invest in it. Oops! Not so fast. It backed out of the deal, and Lehman's shares fell 45% on the news. It was just last week that CAPS member Orac78 suggested there was a reason that companies chose to not buy Lehman after looking at their books.

[Lehman] is a mess, [there] is a reason people look at their books and decide not to buy. Some of their employees are looking elsewhere, sensing a [Bear Stearns-like] collapse coming. Another writeoff and bankruptcy rumor and this stock should be back to its 52 week low.

Capstone Turbine
CAPS member scvballplyr had the chance to actually see one of Capstone Turbine's mini-power plants in action when he attended a conference at the San Francisco Ritz Carlton where the landmark hotel uses the technology for heating, cooling, and power generation.

Just starting to make a dent in the market. Attended company presentation and went through tour during JMP conference at the Ritz Carlton who uses Capstone microturbines. Might be early, but this has significant upside potential. Take a look at the growth rates.

Merrill Lynch
Merrill Lynch is another financial services company that swooned in the wake of the Lehman announcement and despite the supposed Herculean efforts by the government to prop up the market by seizing control of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac. CAPS member Watch375k enumerated a number of factors that conspire against Merrill Lynch flourishing beyond macroeconomic events.

So let me get this right:

1. The company overinvested in subprime mortgages and mortgage companies over the past five years, funding ever increasing amounts of stated income option arm 100% LTV mortgages.
2. Continued to hold the risk of these loans, but removed the obligations off the balance sheet.
3. Has needed to raise capital two or three times, diluting common shareholder value.

You can read the full list of items here, a list that concludes with wonderment that CEO John Thain retains his job.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have made their mark, but it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts, and since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?