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A Retail Play for 2009

By Kristin Graham - Updated Apr 5, 2017 at 6:53PM

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Don't swear off the whole sector. One retail play looks promising for years to come.

Even if you've sworn off retail after the past year's dismal performance, there is one sector play out there still that's thriving. While its competitors are feeling the effects of plunging comps and rising inventory levels, The Buckle (NYSE:BKE) has already posted 11 straight months of double-digit same-store sales gains in 2008 and has been steadily improving margins. And there's more to like about this company than just its recent strong performance.

The Buckle has been around for five decades, and it's a store I predict will be around for a few more. These days, retailers come and go quickly, as many concepts have faddish concepts and fail to properly diversify their merchandise or adapt to changing trends. Diversifying and adapting are key characteristics of retailers who boast longevity, and Buckle's success in the past 50 years displays its unique ability to withstand the rapid pace of the retail world.

All in the family
Buckle first opened in 1948 under the name Mills Clothing Inc. by David Hirschfeld as a single conventional men's clothing store in Nebraska. Today, it is still run by his son who took over operations in 1965 and owns over 41% of the company. The rest of upper-management must nearly feel like family, as the president, two vice presidents, and CFO have all been with Buckle for over 30 years. Further, its district managers have 20 years of experience on average with Buckle. 

This cohort of seasoned management has found the right recipe in terms of growing the business; with just over 370 stores in comparison to the thousand-plus run by competitors Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE:ANF) and American Eagle (NYSE:AEO), the company has avoided overexpansion. Unlike many retailers who find near-term success with a product and uncontrollably expand, Buckle methodically selects where it places each of its locations.

Experience at the helm has also lead to a tightly run inventory management system. Daily delivery of new inventory allows stores to offer a consistently fresh assortment of merchandise. Its distribution system also tailors inventory to reflect buying patterns at various locations and while the incremental costs from this are expensive, they are offset by the lack of markdowns necessary. This has led to an annualized inventory growth rate of just 7% over the past five years in comparison to a 12.7% revenue growth rate during the same time frame.

Each store carries a wide array of brands, including Fossil (NASDAQ:FOSL), Volcom (NASDAQ:VLCM) and Guess (NYSE:GES). Brand-name products account for 70% of sales. These high-profile brand names attract customers and allow the company to spend minimal amounts on marketing; advertising costs amount to just 1% of sales, in comparison to most retailers, who spend 3% to 4%.

The remaining 30% of sales are derived from the company's higher margin private label. By offering this assortment, consumers can pair higher end apparel with lower priced in-house branded items. Both the private label items and lower marketing expenses have likely helped the company achieve gross and net margins superior to most of its peers, including Urban Outfitters (NASDAQ:URBN) and Zumiez.

The valuation
I've had my eye on Buckle for some time, but its superior performance has come at a hefty price in the recent past. And while the stock has since rebounded some, it is now down nearly 50% since reaching over $40 in September. My best guess for the recent drop is general market concern for the retail sector in general. This has left the company selling at just 9 times next year's expected earnings.

Using my discounted cash flow model, I peg the company to be worth roughly $38 per share. This assumes the company grows its expected 30% this year, 15% over the next five years and 5% for five years thereafter and uses a 10% discount rate.

The debt free company has historically generated strong cash flow and it optimally employs its capital to shareholders, rewarding them with a 30.4% ROE in the past 12 months. Management has been repurchasing shares over the past several years; with a total of nearly 1.3 million shares in 2006 and 2007, and the Board recently approved for another 1 million to be bought back. Further, its dividend represents a healthy 38% of trailing earnings. At current prices, the company is yielding 3.8%.  

Buckle up for great returns
As a retail analyst, it's hard for me to admit that there are few retailers that I'm bullish about these days. Many do not have the operational discipline or health to withstand the lengthy recession we are faced with. Some are drowning in too much debt, others have expanded to a level that can't be sustained in a deleveraging economy. However, Buckle is one that I expect to easily weather the current storm and continue to steadily reward its investors for years to come.

Further Retail Foolishness:

Kristin Graham owns shares of American Eagle. American Eagle is a Motley Fool Stock Advisor selection and the Fool owns shares of it. Zumiez, Fossil, and Volcom are Motley Fool Hidden Gems recommendations. The Fool has a disclosure policy.

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Stocks Mentioned

The Buckle, Inc. Stock Quote
The Buckle, Inc.
BKE
$30.04 (-5.24%) $-1.66
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc. Stock Quote
American Eagle Outfitters, Inc.
AEO
$11.49 (-9.03%) $-1.14
Urban Outfitters, Inc. Stock Quote
Urban Outfitters, Inc.
URBN
$20.36 (-7.54%) $-1.66
Abercrombie & Fitch Co. Stock Quote
Abercrombie & Fitch Co.
ANF
$17.97 (-6.79%) $-1.31
Fossil Group, Inc. Stock Quote
Fossil Group, Inc.
FOSL
$6.44 (-6.53%) $0.45
Guess?, Inc. Stock Quote
Guess?, Inc.
GES
$19.25 (-4.94%) $-1.00
VOLCOM, Inc. Stock Quote
VOLCOM, Inc.
VLCM.DL

*Average returns of all recommendations since inception. Cost basis and return based on previous market day close.

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