A 1-in-100 Investor

The first 100 days in office set the tone for any new President. Similarly, Motley Fool CAPS keeps an eye on how investors do in their first 100 days. Some of our best -- we call them All-Stars -- have achieved scores of 100 on stock selections in their first 100 days on CAPS. Since data shows that CAPS' best stocks to buy and sell have gotten top ratings, might we also assume a correlation when the best players rate the best stocks?

One of our highest-rated CAPS members, audr, sports a near-perfect 99.91 member rating. A member since September 2006, audr currently has 133 active picks on CAPS, out of nearly 570 stock picks made. Achieving 78% accuracy, audr has also already attracted 5 "groupies," CAPS players who've listed this leading investor as one of their favorites.

Here are a few of this top member's most recent stock selections, and how they were rated:

Source: Motley Fool CAPS. Current score is how many points a member is beating (lagging) the S&P500 index from the time of the call.
*Price when call was made.

Let's take a look at what other CAPS members are saying about some of these stocks, and whether they agree with this top player's assessment.

Caterpillar
International expansion drove growth for Caterpillar and similarly situated heavy equipment makers like Deere (NYSE:DE). Yet as the recession spread, it became apparent that economic engines around the globe were sputtering and stalling. Caterpillar announced that pay cuts and job cuts would replace its formerly expanding opportunities.

CAPS member ltshailey believes that growing inventories in the industry mean there's still room for Caterpillar to fall:

I am in the machinery business and the manufacturer's are sitting on more equipment right now than they could sell in the next two years...minimum. I was at the manufacturing facility of Caterpillar's largest competitor two weeks ago and due to canceled orders they have more units on the yard than I have seen in the last two years combined. Wait for this to bottom out before you start to buy.

Agrium
The changeable world of commodities had so many companies flying high during the summer, particularly potash manufacturers. Producers of the fertilizer additive rode the boom in agricultural products, as investors assumed that people's need to eat would persist, regardless of a recession.

Now, CAPS All-Star member TheHuney says the world has turned upside-down. Where potash producers like Agrium were previously priced for perfection, they're now priced for disaster, as though no one will plant another seed again. (And yet, people are still eating...) Even with the most basic valuation methodologies, TheHuney finds Agrium undervalued:

During the summer of '08, the potash producers were priced for perfection with [Agrium] eclipsing the $110 mark. In a few short months, we see a complete reversal and now potash companies are priced as if they will barely be profitable over the next decade. More than any other industry, I think agriculture is the place to be right now, as demand will continue to be strong even with worldwide recession. Even with [Agrium] being up nearly 50% from its low point (when it was selling around $25 per share), this still seems like one of the better values on the market right now.

A 1-in-100 opportunity
Now that some of the best and smartest members in the CAPS investor intelligence community have already made their mark, it pays to start your own research on these stocks on Motley Fool CAPS. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from a stock's CAPS page.

As hockey great Wayne Gretzky once noted, "You miss 100% of the shots you never take." At Motley Fool CAPS, every investor's opinion counts. Since it's free to sign up, why not use this opportunity to take your best shot?

On Jan. 12, 2009, Fool co-founder David Gardner, Jeff Fischer, and their Motley Fool Pro team will accept new subscribers to their real-money portfolio service. Motley Fool Pro is investing $1 million of the Fool’s own money in long and short positions in a range of securities, including common stocks, put and call options, and exchange-traded funds (ETFs). They also incorporate proprietary CAPS "community intelligence" data into their research. To learn more about Motley Fool Pro, and to receive a private invitation to join, simply enter your email address in the box below.