Stock Smackdown: Cramer vs. CAPS

There's no denying that "Mad Money" host Jim Cramer is entertaining, popular, and passionate. On many occasions, he's even right. So he's smart, funny, and the closest thing to a stock market rock star -- but is he smarter than you?

The Fool's free investing community, Motley Fool CAPS, aggregates the opinion of more than 125,000 members to rate each stock's likelihood of outperforming or underperforming the market. For the first 20 months since we began tracking the CAPS community's collective intelligence in late 2006, the data shows that newly minted five-star stocks offer the best opportunities for investors, while lowest-rated companies fared the worst.

Cramming for Cramer
Below, we look at some top stocks that Cramer picked and panned during last week's "lightning rounds," then compare those calls to the CAPS community's opinions.

Source: Mad Money and CAPS.

Cramer says...
Best Buy is one of those picks that leaves critics scratching their heads over Cramer's ability to frenetically turn on a dime. Just last week, he argued that the coming convergence in TV made the electronics retailer a stock worth owning. But a few days after Best Buy said it had a blue Christmas, he did a U-turn, declaring he wants nothing to do with it:

I don't want anything to do with consumer electronics... even Best Buy last week did not have good things to say... let that group come in... we do not need to buy anything in that group... it is going to get cheaper... we can look at it lower later.

Cramer's also beginning to shift his opinion on the shipping industry. Until now, he has only favored Nordic American Tanker. But he believes the Baltic Dry Index -- which measures the general shipping costs for commodities -- has bottomed, so dry bulk shippers will start looking attractive again. Although he liked Frontline (NYSE:FRO) until that company cut its dividend, Cramer's latest choice in the sector is DryShips.

CAPS Says
With more than 85% of the CAPS members rating DryShips to outperform the market, you'd think CAPS members would agree with Cramer's assessment. But in reality, they've assigned it a lowly two-star rating. As the recession rippled around the globe, shipping rates collapsed in a perfect storm.

CAPS member Starman23 thinks investors would be wise to focus on China as the catalyst for a rebound. Commodities aren't going to be priced to zero, and if you wait too long, shipping rates will have already rebounded:

All about China ... commodities have bottomed. Come on, they can't go to Zero. By time we ramp up ship building it will be too late. Shipping rates are going up at least 1000% in the next 2 years.

Cramer and CAPS also diverge on consumer-goods leader Procter & Gamble. Roughly 97% of those rating the Pampers maker believe it will outperform the market, providing Procter with a top five-star rating. While Cramer thinks P&G might start performing in the second half of the year, CAPS member SIP08PSU enumerates a number of reasons why it should negotiate the recession well:

Proctor and Gamble is another strong long-term holding, especially to help negotiate a down cycle.

1. Strong market leader position.
2. Strong brand recognition in the US and internationally.
3. Highly diversified product and geographic mix.
4. Strong financial performance, strong historical growth in revenues and profits.

Your say
While CAPS members may stand with Jim Cramer or on opposite sides of the field, the investor intelligence community is more than what some All-Stars think, even if they are TV personalities. But what do you think? Is Cramer right or off his rocker? Drop by CAPS and sound off with your thoughts on Best Buy or any other stock.

Motley Fool CAPS is a great place to start your own research on these stocks. Read a company's financial reports, scrutinize key data and charts, and examine the comments your fellow investors have made, all from a stock's CAPS page. Best of all it's free!