President Obama's infrastructure stimulus will help General Cable (NYSE:BGC) in the short term. In the long run, it won't make a lick of difference. Love General Cable on its own terms, and not for some government program.
That's the lesson I took away from General Cable's fourth-quarter results. The cable spinner reported revenues of $1.3 billion, and on a metal-adjusted basis, the sales total was 20% higher than in last year's Q4. GAAP earnings fell from $0.84 per share a year ago to $0.34 this time. The worldwide economic crisis has put the brakes on General Cable's results -- understandable for a company that makes a living on energy infrastructure, long-haul data cables, and heavy construction.
That focus might make you think of General Cable as an obvious play on Obama's stimulus plans, reaping the rewards of higher government spending in exactly those categories. But CEO Greg Kenny warns us not to jump to hasty conclusions.
"I do not believe that spending initiatives coming from the government's stimulus bill are necessarily incremental for the overall spending that would have occurred by the private sector on its own over time," Kenny said in a conference call with analysts. In other words, Obama's plans may hasten construction a bit, but networking and energy companies like AT&T (NYSE:T) and TECO Energy (NYSE:TE) would have ordered the same amount of communications and power cables from providers like General Cable anyway. Fluor (NYSE:FLR) might build another suspension bridge or two, needing cables for that. But otherwise, General Cable really couldn't care less about stimulus plans.
That, my friends, is a manager with long-term vision. Kenny is telling us to worry less about the next few quarters and more about the long-range health of the business. By the powers invested in me by years of Foolish conduct, I'd like to dub him an honorary Fool.
And on its own terms, General Cable is a fine business selling at ridiculously low valuations. "The bigger drivers long-term are green mandates" that could add $100 billion of energy infrastructure investments over the next few years, Kenny says. Chiming in along those lines, Motley Fool CAPS member ZenWarrior01 notes that "BGC is already cheap as can be at a 4.5 P/E. Just wait for the electric grid to get replaced... this stock is going way up IMO."
Couldn't have said it better myself. General Cable richly deserves its CAPS stars.
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