Great Call on Disney! What's Next?

Is a mouse a match for a global recession? Mortal mice might buckle, but if you're talking about Disney's (NYSE:DIS) Mickey Mouse, then you've got a serious clash of titans.

Disney's first quarter certainly showed that the company isn't immune to recessionary forces, as net income fell 46% from the prior year. However, with a particularly deep lineup -- which includes all things Hannah Montana, Desperate Housewives, the ESPN network, and a collection of Disney theme parks -- it'd be surprising to see the Mouse held down for long.

Though Disney hasn't quite hit the five-star level, The Motley Fool's CAPS community has given the stock four stars, which definitely makes it worth a closer look. More than 3,700 CAPS members have rated Disney an outperformer, but none have read the stock as well as primetime300, who has made three on-the-money outperform calls on Disney starting at the beginning of 2008, racking up 34 points on those picks.

primetime300 is one of CAPS' All-Stars -- players with a rating of 80 or greater -- and has managed an impressive stock-picking accuracy of 74% while racking up more than 2,100 points. Disney isn't this player's only great call. Here's a look at a few of the other prescient picks:

Data from CAPS.

So what is this investor looking at these days? Here are a few of the most recent calls on CAPS:

Data from CAPS.

While not all of these picks may pan out, they could be a good place to start some further research. I decided to take a closer look at Visa.

Who's right on Visa?
It's important to note that although Visa has only a three-star rating on CAPS, the vast majority of members who have rated it have a favorable outlook. There have been enough members rating the stock an underperformer though, that its rating is stuck at that three-star purgatory.

Why the disagreement? If we asked CAPS All-Star TotoMMB to speak on behalf of the bears, here's what we'd get:

Was bullish with IPO, but downturn is going to hit this hard. They were silently profiting while credit was doled out without a second thought. Now, with banks raising rates and slashing limits, they are mandating frugality - or at least using cash. When the populace is doing whatever they can to not have debt, you can't charge a percentage on 0. Good for the masses, bad for the banks (and therefore Visa and [MasterCard]).

Of course, the bulls have a pretty compelling case of their own. djmassi recently rated the stock an outperformer and said:

As cash based transactions shrink at an exponential rate Visa will reap the benefits as the best positioned company globaly. This stock got beat down a bit because some lumped it in with banks, but with check cards all the rage Visa will continue to get their fee for transactions, even during the downturn!

Although I really like Visa's business model -- particularly the fact that it doesn't take on credit risk directly -- I'm not quite ready to give the stock a thumbs-up in my CAPS portfolio. I've been concerned about the stock's valuation since it came public in March 2008, and though the valuation is well down from its peak, it's still a little rich for my taste.

But here's the important question: What's your take on it? Will Visa's enviable business model and strong brand prove that it deserves a premium valuation? Get in the action by clicking over to CAPS. It's absolutely free, and our community already has more than 135,000 stock-pickers chipping in to find the best stocks out there.

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